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This week I teamed up with @IndexGuru and we posted our thoughts on what Timo Werner to Liverpool might mean for the shape and personnel. Here’s the key bits in my usual thread format #footballindex
After Leipzig beat Spurs in February Werner in an interview with Viasport said, “I know that Liverpool (are) the best team at the moment in the world and when you are linked with that team it makes me very proud.”
It has been reported that a clause in Werner’s contract could see him leave for £51 million if there is a deal agreed between the clubs before an unknown point in April however, it is unclear how the effects of Covid-19 will play out in the transfer market.
So how does Werner play?
Nagelsmann plays Werner on the left of a front two in a fluid 3-5-2 or 5-3-2. Looking at his season heatmap we can see that Werner drifts into the inside-left position, where, as an inverted forward, Werner is able to use his pace to run at defenders.
Nagelsmann plays Werner on the left of a front two in a fluid 3-5-2 or 5-3-2. Looking at his season heatmap we can see that Werner drifts into the inside-left position, where, as an inverted forward, Werner is able to use his pace to run at defenders.
In the transition phase of play, Werner drops into space on the wing where he is able to bring his creative teammates into play, or drag the defenders away and create space for his teammates.
Looking at the goal (green) and shots on target (blue) maps for this season we see that Werner’s goals come from all over the box as he gets onto those simple, high xG chances. With his shots on target, we can see that they tend to be from the left-hand side of the area.
Let’s say Jurgen Klopp wants to get Salah, Mane, Firmino and Werner into his side. Something many have suggested Liverpool might want to try at home against sides who come to defend and try to steal a goal on the break or at a set piece. They could line up like these imgs
4-2-3-1 was Klopp’s preferred formation while he was at Dortmund and something he used when he first arrived on Merseyside but that was with a genuine number 10 in Coutinho.
In comfortable possession in the opposition half, Liverpool currently look a lot like this:
But how does that change with a different formation and different personnel? Wijnaldum drops out and Werner comes in.
Is that viable? Are you asking Firmino to hang back out of the box to pick up pieces or try and stop a counter? Otherwise there is just one layer of protection in front of the back two.
Part of Liverpool’s dominance is making all those ball recoveries in the opposition’s half, keeping the pressure on. You lose an element of that with this formation.
The more teams have come up against Liverpool and the more other teams have found success, others have tried to copy. Atleti sat in a very deep block. Watford did the same and United opted for a back 5 too.
If LFC went to a 4-2-3-1, let’s assume Werner occupies the 9 role with Firmino behind, there is likely to be no space in behind for Werner to run into. Especially against the deep block. Drop between the lines, he will start to invade the space in which Firmino has to operate.
What seems most likely is that Werner comes in as a rotation option for the front 3 and the system doesn’t change too much, if at all. Werner has shown he can play off either side or down the middle especially vital with the AFCON scheduled to take place this Winter.
It’s likely both Mane and Salah will be missing. While Origi may be scripted into Anfield folklore, we’ve seen he’s not quite good enough to step up to the same level. Minamino’s time has been limited, Jones & Elliott are talented youngsters but not direct replacements just yet.
Werner’s output this season in terms of goals and assists is better than anyone Liverpool have, which is a considerable feat. He doesn’t have stand out comparisons with any of the front 3 either, suggesting he could slot into any of those roles comfortably.
In the season heat maps above we see the average position of Mane (1), Firmino (2) and Salah (3). We can see how Firmino doesn’t fulfil the typical position of a number 9, dropping deeper. From Mane and Salah’s positions we see that they run beyond Firmino into the space behind
Impact on the rest of the squad?
So what about the impact on the rest of the team? Adam Lallana looks like he is moving on, while Xherdan Shaqiri may also be surplus to requirements. So with those two out of the picture there is space within the squad for the addition of Werner.
So what about the impact on the rest of the team? Adam Lallana looks like he is moving on, while Xherdan Shaqiri may also be surplus to requirements. So with those two out of the picture there is space within the squad for the addition of Werner.
However, a move to 4-2-3-1 leaves question marks hanging over a number of names. Fabinho and Henderson would be shoe-ins for the two defensive midfield positions. Most at risk would probably be Keita and Ox. Both Klopp signed both of them for around £80m combined.
Still with us? Interested in our opinions on what might happen price wise? Check out the full post here: https://football-index-guru.com/2020/04/07/werner-at-liverpool/