1/ In a previous thread ( https://twitter.com/karlfisch/status/1240715743596933123) where I briefly discussed the effect on state pension plans, I touched on the dramatic effect this situation will likely have on school budgets. Got our first indication from our local school district (DCSD)

2/ DCSD has been planning to transition back to a salary schedule (long story), resulting in at least small and often medium raises for teachers. They have now put that plan on hold and are looking at three options for next year.

3/ The best option is to keep everything the same - no raises and no increase to employee benefit contributions. The worst option is a 1.25% pay cut and $20-$50/month increases to employee medical premium contributions.

4/ To be honest, I think these options might be being too optimistic (unless the state waives the minimum reserve requirements that district have to maintain and districts are willing to dip below that minimum)

5/ Colorado, like all (?) states is not allowed to run a deficit. The Colorado legislature is also severely hampered by a constitutional amendment called TABOR, which doesn't allow them to raise taxes without a vote of the people & limits the total tax revenue they can keep.

6/ While Colorado voters have generally supported local "TABOR overrides" to keep "excess" revenue, they have consistently voted down statewide measures to increase revenue. The revenue limits also have the effect of ratcheting down spending in a downturn even without any changes

7/ So the legislature is going to be faced with drastically reduced revenue for their budget. Local school districts will also see lower property tax revenue because of short-term delays in people paying as well as - medium term - stagnated real estate prices.

8/ I suspect that the options that DCSD are looking at also include not filling a lot of open positions, increasing class sizes as a result (but I don't know that for sure), as well as large cuts to other, non-salary/benefit portions of their budgets.

9/ I think every school district will be looking at the same situation. So, if you are a school employee, get mentally prepared for both a likely pay cut (in one form or another) and increased responsibilities.

10/ If you are a parent or student, be prepared for things to be rough for at least a couple of years.

11/ If you are a voter in Colorado, consider contacting your representative & advocating a TABOR repeal and/or tax changes (nascent wealth tax *was* in the works), although I don't have much hope of it passing given that many folks will be facing financial difficulties as well.