A few thoughts on this new @CNNPolitics poll:
"Extremely enthusiastic" about voting is the lowest they've measured this cycle (down from 40% in March to 31% in April). 1/n

Extremely + very enthusiastic is 68% among RV who approve of Trump but 18 points lower among people who disapprove. Not that this kind of self-reporting of enthusiasm is necessarily predictive, but yikes. 2/

Change in enthusiasm x partisanship from January -- extremely + very enthusiastic among GOPs was 80 in January / 80 now. Among Ds, was 70 in January / 56 now. Again, yikes. 3/

And yet... Biden is leading 53 / 42 with RVs. If you look at RCP average over the last week, Biden has ranged from +5 to +11, with a high-water vote share of 53. 4/

Oops... typo... +4 to +11 for Biden in the last week... 5/

Trump vote share has ranged from 39-44 which is not great to put it mildly. Again, from RCP: 6/

Trump touched 47 a couple of times last month, in an ABC/WaPo poll (credible) and an Emerson poll (not credible). In fact the only polls you can find that show Trump at 50% are Emerson polls that extrapolate a 2-way race where Biden and Trump get 100% of the vote 7/

Biden, on the other hand, currently has a RCP average of 49.5. Caveats about national polls / RV vs LV samples apply, but whatever COVID bump there was for Trump never produced a national poll with him leading (closest he got was -2 in ABC/WaPo 3/25) /fin