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New Brunswick's daily update has just begun.
But earlier in the day members of the media were given a technical briefing on the province's modelling numbers.
It is important to note that these are just projections, they are not set in stone.
Here are some highlights.
But earlier in the day members of the media were given a technical briefing on the province's modelling numbers.
It is important to note that these are just projections, they are not set in stone.
Here are some highlights.
First of all, projected deaths over the course of the pandemic:
NB is projecting between 550-1750 deaths over 1.5-2 years (when a vaccine is expected).
If no public health measures were taken, deaths could have reached 5600.
NB is projecting between 550-1750 deaths over 1.5-2 years (when a vaccine is expected).
If no public health measures were taken, deaths could have reached 5600.
When it comes to comparable jurisdictions New Brunswick is trending in the direction of South Korea.
Again, it's important to note that these are all subject to change. If people were to stop following public health advice cases could explode in a matter of days/weeks.
Again, it's important to note that these are all subject to change. If people were to stop following public health advice cases could explode in a matter of days/weeks.
A note on these next few graphs. Italy was chosen as a comparable to show worst case scenario. The light blue is how NB is trending, but again, this is subject to change.
NB is projecting 13 patients to be in the ICU by the end of the month. Capacity is just over 80 beds.
NB is projecting 13 patients to be in the ICU by the end of the month. Capacity is just over 80 beds.
This next one shows hospitalizations.
The projection suggest there could be 28 people in hospital by the end of the month.
Interesting to note that in the worst case scenario (using northern Italy as a comparable) our hospital capacity may not have been overwhelmed.
The projection suggest there could be 28 people in hospital by the end of the month.
Interesting to note that in the worst case scenario (using northern Italy as a comparable) our hospital capacity may not have been overwhelmed.
Next, NB is projecting 15 deaths by the end of the month.
Health minister Ted Flemming says that he hopes in particular this slide is wrong, but it's up to everyone.
"I hope I'm wrong and deaths are lower than that," he said.
"It's the public that drives that number down."
Health minister Ted Flemming says that he hopes in particular this slide is wrong, but it's up to everyone.
"I hope I'm wrong and deaths are lower than that," he said.
"It's the public that drives that number down."
Flemming also said the province has fared well so far.
"Early indications are that our discipline ... has benefited New Brunswickers tremendously."
"However, we have to stay on top of it."
"Early indications are that our discipline ... has benefited New Brunswickers tremendously."
"However, we have to stay on top of it."
It's important to highlight something said about models: they are always wrong.
These are used to allow hospitals to try and plan for what could happen during the outbreak.
The models will also become more accurate as time goes on and more data is collected.
These are used to allow hospitals to try and plan for what could happen during the outbreak.
The models will also become more accurate as time goes on and more data is collected.
When releasing these numbers public health is asking people not become complacent.
Officials say all it takes is one trigger event, one mass gathering and cases could explode. Our trajectory would change entirely and could approach worst case scenarios.
Officials say all it takes is one trigger event, one mass gathering and cases could explode. Our trajectory would change entirely and could approach worst case scenarios.
As Flemming said:
"The wrong gathering at the wrong time could blow these numbers apart."
"The wrong gathering at the wrong time could blow these numbers apart."
Officials are still unsure when exactly the peak will come.
As Dr. Theresa Tam said this morning during the release of federal modelling, we likely won't know we've hit the peak until we've moved past it.
@Global_NB
As Dr. Theresa Tam said this morning during the release of federal modelling, we likely won't know we've hit the peak until we've moved past it.
@Global_NB
