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1/ New #COVID19 data from Germany, from a rep pop sample in one of the regions that is most heavily affected (Heinsberg) suggest ~15% of pop was already infected and is now immune. CFR is ~0.37%, much lower than suggested by data from John's Hopkins Uni... http://shorturl.at/vHY17
2/ About 1000 people from 600 randomly selected households in the region participated, with a response rate of ~80%. The data released today was based on preliminary data from ~500 individuals who participated in a survey and a smear test...
3/ The researchers point out that low viral loads lead to infections with milder symptoms and a higher chance of survival. They suggest that strict hygienic measures (e.g. washing hands, masks, clean surfaces) help to keep viral loads low, so these measures ARE important...
4/ The researchers also emphasize that (i) people who recover from #COVID19 are immune (probably 6-18 months), the virus does not "linger" (ii) herd immunity is possible (iii) we can and should start thinking about how to organize social life after the lockdown...
5/ Some comments on these results: The low CFR in Heinsberg/Germany does not necessarily translate to other regions and countries. CFR is partially a function of demographic factors, hygiene, reserve capacity of intensive medical care, and access to medical care...
6/ Some of these factors that influence CFR seem to be more favourable in Germany than in other countries. For example, see http://shorturl.at/atxEK ...
7/ The large discrepancy with data from Johns Hopkins University (JHU) is mostly due to the fact the JHU data is not based on rep pop samples, but on clinical data. But clinical data are biased because they test almost entirely only patients with severe symptoms...
8/ The new data from Germany also suggest that #Covid19 is already much more widespread and the CFR is much lower than data from JHU suggest. Most "unknown" infections were mild or free of symptoms...
9/ The new data from Germany also confirm some things we already knew, i.e. most #Covid19 related fatalities happened among people >80yrs and people with medical preconditions. Herd immunity in the rest of the population would protect those most vulnerable...
10/ Here is the link to the original press conference (in German): http://shorturl.at/fwRU2
If I misunderstood or misrepresented something, I'd be grateful if the PIs of the study would correct me
@hendrikstreeck
If I misunderstood or misrepresented something, I'd be grateful if the PIs of the study would correct me
@hendrikstreeck
This short URL doesn't work. Here is the correct one: https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Heinsberg-Studie-entraetselt-Coronavirus-article21704605.html
