Alarmist claims on #COVIDー19 are scaring people, especially medical staff. But does the (N.Ire) numbers warrant the panic?

Recently the Health Minister @RobinSwannMoH has been using language such as "a surge of biblical proportions" with deaths reaching 14,000.

But that figure varies greatly depending on what day it is and who he's speaking to. In the above image he made the claim to @StephenNolan on the 20th March.

On the 19th March the Belfast Telegraph's @rafehewitt quoted him as claiming "15,000 could die" from the virus.

On the same day the Belfast Telegraph's @BennysBlurb quotes Swann as claiming 'a worst case scenario could be 9,000 people would die'.

On the 1st April the Irish News' @ClaireMSimpson reported Swann with another 'worst-case scenario' figure of much lower proportions. Here Claire writes:

"Northern Ireland could see up to 3,000 deaths from coronavirus in a 'worst-case scenario', expert modelling has suggested."

So from 15,000 to 14,000 to 9,000 to 3,000. Is it any wonder people are confused, worried and anxious? Recently the minister warned a looming peek coming between the 6-20 April: https://www.derryjournal.com/news/uk-news/coronavirus-robin-swann-expects-first-covid-19-peak-between-april-6-and-april-20-and-warns-3000-deaths-over-20-weeks-reasonable-worst-case-scenario-2525100

This in turn has caused great concern at a "coronavirus assessment centre" in Belfast. A doctor at the Beech Hall health centre said:

"We really don't know how or when the surge is going to happen..There's a sense of anticipation, a nervousness.."

This surge that the doctor is waiting on is no doubt the surge spoke of by the health minister. The health centre is likely concerned not knowing if the surge is going to be closer to 15,000 or 3,000 fatality figures and are rightfully anxious.

But let's take a quick look at what the numbers are telling us so far.

Here is a bar chart showing the "COVID-19 Associated Deaths" as per the Public Health Agency in Northern Ireland. This data is correct as of 17:45 9/4/20:

The first death in N.I. was registered by the PHA on the 23 March. The most deaths in a single 24 hour period was 12 and registered on the 3/4/20. Here is a breakdown of the figures from the PHA that are used in the chart:

Here is a 2 axis-chart using the data:

According to PHA there have been 10,203 people tested for COVID-19 in N.I. - here is a breakdown of those tests:

Tested - 10,203
Positive - 1477 (14.5%)
Negative - 8726 (85.5%)

(The PHA have stopped including those that tested negative in their daily "Surveillance Reports".)

The total number of deaths "associated with COVID-19" (PHA own words) to date is: 82

That figure doesn't necessarily mean that we lost 82 people to COVID-19 just that they tested positive for the virus within the 28 days prior to death.

The definition of a COVID-19 death should in itself sound alarm bells yet to my knowledge it hasn't been reported in the media here. So I have written to the PHA for further information and will update this thread accordingly.

We must also bear in mind that a massive 85.5% of people tested are testing negative. Given that to get a test you have to be symptomatic at present that result would point to the symptoms of COVID-19 matching the symptoms of another illness that the 85.5% are presenting with.

Why is the media ignoring this? What procedures are in place to confirm cause of deaths? Will we ever know how the people who died really died or what they died from? The numbers I have presented, in my opinion, don't warrant the hysteria.

I hope the numbers are proven correct and the "experts" get it wrong. Any death is a great sadness but instigating mass hysteria when the trends don't support that hysteria will in itself cause mental health issues in people as they struggle to cope in lockdown.