Read on Twitter
Several semi-related observations about Joe Biden. First... the polling data looks better for him than it did for Clinton. He& #39;s held a remarkably consistent lead. Clinton did not, and it was smaller over the same period in 15-16. 1/n
Hyper-partisanship in current times, and Trump& #39;s super stable approval ratings, suggest this is likely to remain (relatively) stable. Rachel Bitecofer& #39;s negative partisanship model suggests Dem turnout will be high. 2/n https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/">https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer...
Trump is getting a very small rally around the flag bump in approval polling. I& #39;m old enough to remember Bush losing in 1992 after that effect wore off from Gulf I. Bush lost it too after 9/11. Given how bad this is, it will fade... 3/n
But it won& #39;t fade as much as it did for either of the Bushes. The man is teflon, the Fox/OAN media surrounding him warps reality to suit his needs, and I suspect there& #39;s literally NOTHING he could do that would drop his approval below 35% as a result. 4/n
And because of negative partisanship, I can& #39;t see him getting less than about 42% of the popular vote, no matter how bad the economy is. Which, if you hadn& #39;t noticed, is taking a turn for the worse more rapidly than even the Great Depression. 5/n
Most of the economic projection model of the 2020 election are linear: they can& #39;t accurately handle an outlier like this. Nor can they compensate for the conservative media driven cult of personality surrounding Trump. 6/n
Even if Biden is polling 6.4% higher than Trump, and that polling accurate, there& #39;s still a 5% chance Trump wins according to my model. It& #39;s only ~85% if the polling is off by the same amount it was in 2016. Median Dem EV& #39;s is 311 in the former, 284 in the latter 7/n
Note: my model says that the Electoral College provides about a 3.1% advantage to Republicans: i.e. Dems need to win the popular vote by 3.1% to have a 50-50 chance of winning. This is somewhat higher than other models. (Which put it around 2). 8/n
One thing that hasn& #39;t been spoken about much: Trump has left a incoherent trail of disastrous quotes about COVID-19. Amid a collapsed economy, and lots of death, it& #39;s hard not to see Dems turn them into devastating adds EVERYWHERE in October and November. 9/n
We& #39;re already seeing signs that people are increasingly viewing the severity of the epidemic as being a result of a slow and mismanaged response by the WH. That will only get worse as the economic ramifications are really felt. Dems need to hammer home now: this is his fault 10/n
Then there& #39;s his press briefings, will will also provide ample fodder for ads. "I don& #39;t take responsibility at all," is going to be a whammy, so will the quote that he wouldn& #39;t change anything he& #39;s done. 11/n
I can& #39;t answer questions about how the GOP will use COVID-19 to rig the election in November. I suspect they will try, via tactics that look a lot like Wisconsin this past week. That would get... ugly. I don& #39;t know how the public would react. Or blue states. 12/n
This is an open question, as is how Trump would take a loss. Either one can quickly devolve into nightmare scenarios. Not saying they WILL happen, just that there& #39;s some really ugly potentialities if the GOP stopped even pretending to be playing the democracy game. 13/n
Which brings me to the stakes in this election: the courts. If Trump wins, we get a 7-2 court and this turns into a dystopian nightmare for women, LGBT people, POCs, the poor, as civil rights are destroyed and corporate power is back to the Lochner v. New York era. 14/n
Rachel Bitecofer& #39;s model, and some recent polling data suggest that the left has figured out what& #39;s at stake, and that "Bernie or Bust" won& #39;t be a huge factor (but Biden does need a veep to ensure his left flank turns out. 15/n
Speaking of Biden.. he was never my guy. But I& #39;ll use an analogy why I& #39;ll crawl off my deathbed to vote for him. A 7-2 conservative court is a non-survivable event for the trans community. With Biden, we can at least slow the damage. 16/n
Choosing between Biden and Trump is like being told you will get either:
1. Chuck-E-Cheese pizza (kinda yucky but theoretically food)
2. Strapped to a table an force fed raw sewage until you die of sepsis
There is no option to abstain. You WILL get one or the other. 17/n
1. Chuck-E-Cheese pizza (kinda yucky but theoretically food)
2. Strapped to a table an force fed raw sewage until you die of sepsis
There is no option to abstain. You WILL get one or the other. 17/n
If I have any say in the matter whatsoever, I& #39;m doing everything I can to not end up with number 2. 18/n
