Several semi-related observations about Joe Biden. First... the polling data looks better for him than it did for Clinton. He's held a remarkably consistent lead. Clinton did not, and it was smaller over the same period in 15-16. 1/n

Hyper-partisanship in current times, and Trump's super stable approval ratings, suggest this is likely to remain (relatively) stable. Rachel Bitecofer's negative partisanship model suggests Dem turnout will be high. 2/n https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/

Trump is getting a very small rally around the flag bump in approval polling. I'm old enough to remember Bush losing in 1992 after that effect wore off from Gulf I. Bush lost it too after 9/11. Given how bad this is, it will fade... 3/n

But it won't fade as much as it did for either of the Bushes. The man is teflon, the Fox/OAN media surrounding him warps reality to suit his needs, and I suspect there's literally NOTHING he could do that would drop his approval below 35% as a result. 4/n

And because of negative partisanship, I can't see him getting less than about 42% of the popular vote, no matter how bad the economy is. Which, if you hadn't noticed, is taking a turn for the worse more rapidly than even the Great Depression. 5/n

Most of the economic projection model of the 2020 election are linear: they can't accurately handle an outlier like this. Nor can they compensate for the conservative media driven cult of personality surrounding Trump. 6/n

Even if Biden is polling 6.4% higher than Trump, and that polling accurate, there's still a 5% chance Trump wins according to my model. It's only ~85% if the polling is off by the same amount it was in 2016. Median Dem EV's is 311 in the former, 284 in the latter 7/n

Note: my model says that the Electoral College provides about a 3.1% advantage to Republicans: i.e. Dems need to win the popular vote by 3.1% to have a 50-50 chance of winning. This is somewhat higher than other models. (Which put it around 2). 8/n

One thing that hasn't been spoken about much: Trump has left a incoherent trail of disastrous quotes about COVID-19. Amid a collapsed economy, and lots of death, it's hard not to see Dems turn them into devastating adds EVERYWHERE in October and November. 9/n

We're already seeing signs that people are increasingly viewing the severity of the epidemic as being a result of a slow and mismanaged response by the WH. That will only get worse as the economic ramifications are really felt. Dems need to hammer home now: this is his fault 10/n

Then there's his press briefings, will will also provide ample fodder for ads. "I don't take responsibility at all," is going to be a whammy, so will the quote that he wouldn't change anything he's done. 11/n

I can't answer questions about how the GOP will use COVID-19 to rig the election in November. I suspect they will try, via tactics that look a lot like Wisconsin this past week. That would get... ugly. I don't know how the public would react. Or blue states. 12/n

This is an open question, as is how Trump would take a loss. Either one can quickly devolve into nightmare scenarios. Not saying they WILL happen, just that there's some really ugly potentialities if the GOP stopped even pretending to be playing the democracy game. 13/n

Which brings me to the stakes in this election: the courts. If Trump wins, we get a 7-2 court and this turns into a dystopian nightmare for women, LGBT people, POCs, the poor, as civil rights are destroyed and corporate power is back to the Lochner v. New York era. 14/n

Rachel Bitecofer's model, and some recent polling data suggest that the left has figured out what's at stake, and that "Bernie or Bust" won't be a huge factor (but Biden does need a veep to ensure his left flank turns out. 15/n

Speaking of Biden.. he was never my guy. But I'll use an analogy why I'll crawl off my deathbed to vote for him. A 7-2 conservative court is a non-survivable event for the trans community. With Biden, we can at least slow the damage. 16/n

Choosing between Biden and Trump is like being told you will get either:

1. Chuck-E-Cheese pizza (kinda yucky but theoretically food)

2. Strapped to a table an force fed raw sewage until you die of sepsis

There is no option to abstain. You WILL get one or the other. 17/n

If I have any say in the matter whatsoever, I'm doing everything I can to not end up with number 2. 18/n