The Italian National Statistical Institute just released an update on 2020 mortality rate (up to March 28).
Focusing on #Lombardia, updated estimates (with @sergallet and Paolo Buonanno) show that official #COVIDー19 deaths account for ~half of the observed excess mortality. 1/n

Using hypothetical case fatality rates (CFR), we estimate that a non-negligible fraction of the population may be already infected. 2/n

The sample covers 1450 Italian municipalities, of which 552 in Lombardy accounting for ~70% of all municipalities. Our estimates should *not* be interpreted as representative of all Italy. 3/n @J_CD_T

An earlier analysis is available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3567093. 4/4