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THREAD: Today& #39;s shocking #LFS data confirm once again why the official unemployment rate is a virtually useless indicator during a downturn. It excludes people not working but not actively searching & available for work. And people & #39;employed& #39; but not working any hours...2
Just over 1 million people lost their jobs in March (as of the reference week: March 15-21). 1.3 million more kept their jobs but didn& #39;t work. 800K lost more than half their hours. Let& #39;s say roughly 2.7 million job-equivalents were lost (using half the 800K who lost >1/2 hrs)...3
But official unemployment rose by only 413K due to strict definition of who counts as & #39;unemployed.& #39; The loss in jobs (2.7 million) was 6.5 times higher than the rise in unemployment. A truer measure of the unemployment rate, therefore, would be about 20%, not & #39;official& #39; 7.8%...4
Recovery in the labour market will require a long process of rebuilding employment, participation, and average hours. Reducing the official unemployment rate (which will rise again in April, but will still be misleadingly low) will be only a small part of the solution...5
The #LFS data also confirmed the deep inequities in the impact of #COVID19 job losses. People in insecure, low-wage jobs were far more likely to lose work and hours. The cleavages are striking:
* 15% fall in employmt for youth (15-24), 5 times worse than for 25-54 yr-olds ...6
* 15% fall in employmt for youth (15-24), 5 times worse than for 25-54 yr-olds ...6
* Loss of work for multiple job holders (down 25%) was 5 times worse than the decline for all workers.
* Loss of work for those in temporary jobs (down 14.5%) was 3 times worse than for those in permanent jobs.
* Loss of jobs for women (7.0%) almost twice as large as for men...7
* Loss of work for those in temporary jobs (down 14.5%) was 3 times worse than for those in permanent jobs.
* Loss of jobs for women (7.0%) almost twice as large as for men...7
* Losses of jobs and hours for those without union protection (7% fall in employment, plus 19% more who lost >1/2 of hours) were significantly worse than for those whose employers were constrained by a union collective agreement.
Left to its own devices, this crisis will badly exacerbate existing inequality. It will require a central focus on helping the most insecure and low-wage workers first now, and then committing to reduce precarity & poverty on an ongoing basis, to limit this very worrying impact.
