Thread by @darkthreader, Ok, so lets talk about the real impact of COVID-19 vs emotional [...]

Ok, so lets talk about the real impact of COVID-19 vs emotional arguments (MUH GRANDPA)

We locked it down, tanked the stock market, shuttered business (many of which WON'T be coming back) put 17m+ people out of work

Awesome

So what are the longterm implications of this?
1/

Lets start with the stock market

Most people who are economically illiterate think the stock market is simply a slush fund for rich investors

The reality is it also significantly funds retirements either through pensions, ISAs, 401ks and the like
2/

Current public pension pots make around 47% of their funding from the stock market

So a 20% drop in the stock market means everyone's pension gets around 10% lighter OR the money will need to be made up through additional taxes/gutting social programs
3/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/public-pension-plans-continue-to-shift-into-u-s-stocks-11572955200

Public Pension Plans Continue to Shift Into U.S. Stocks

As the bull market enters its 11th year, state and local pension plans are piling on risk as they try to make up shortfalls.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/public-pension-plans-continue-to-shift-into-u-s-stocks-11572955200

This was Trump's economic miracle. It may have lined investors pockets, but it ALSO eased the burden on states and municipalities. Thereby easing the burden on tax payers. Lower taxes = more money in your pocket to cover your cost of living thus easing cost of social programs
4/

Estimates put the number of people retiring PER DAY at 10k. So over the course of the 18 months that some are saying this may last, that's 5.475 million people due to retire before a vaccine is available, in America alone
5/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/americans-retiring-increasing-pace-145837368.html

Americans are retiring at an increasing pace

Americans are retiring at an increasing pace, which will have knock on effects.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/americans-retiring-increasing-pace-145837368.html

If you have a government pension, congratulations...you MAY see the government top up those loses, at the cost of trillions to the US tax payer.

If you have a private pension?

Good luck with that
6/

What does this mean in the long run? Grandpa's going to be working 'til he's 75 in order to be able to afford to retire

What do you think the longterm health/mortality implications are for that?

Is it even possible with many career paths?
7/

How many 70+ year old road workers have you seen recently?

If you've done manual labour for most of your life it takes a toll on your body. So what can these people do to top up their retirement income? Greeter at walmart? How many jobs is that total?
8/

Estimates predict that 2.2m people would have died had the disease simply been left to do it's thing

Of which around half at least were already retired, and therefore not economically active

There is a lot of middle ground between a total lockdown (tank economy) and nothing
9/

We could have isolated at risk elderly/longterm sick people while keeping the economy going. The benefit of this would have been more tax income to fund such measures, including MEDICAID

On top of this MILLIONS of people would have kept their employer funded health plans
10/

Hospitals are literally having to lay off doctors and nurses because of lost revenue from non-coronavirus patients

I'm sure that won't have any consequences in the long run
11/ https://apnews.com/811b2057ad110605fa70a2745e5e0ee4

A mounting casualty of coronavirus crisis: Health care jobs

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Tens of thousands of medical workers across the United States are suddenly out of work as operating rooms and doctor's offices go dark, casualties of urgent calls to...

https://apnews.com/811b2057ad110605fa70a2745e5e0ee4

Now lets talk about comorbidities

Have you noticed how most of these patients "without pre-existing conditions" are fucking enormous?

IF YOU INHALE CHEESEBURGERS THE WAY MOST PEOPLE INHALE OXYGEN YOU HAVE MADE A CHOICE TO HAVE POOR HEALTH

Thanks #BodyPosi activists!
12/

>i'm poor so I can't afford to eat a healthy diet

Fuck off

Vegetables are cheap & abundant

Exercise is FREE

You don't need a $100/month gym membership in order to go for a daily jog

Recipes are free & abundant online

Spend less time on your couch and learn to cook
13/

If you consider fried chicken a primary food group then guess what?

#COVIDー19 isn't doing anything a couple of hundred more buckets of chicken wouldn't have done anyway
14/

>But my Mom has cancer

Guess what? Lots of people's Moms die of cancer every year

Mine did

She went through 2 years of chemo, wherein her immune system cratered, before she eventually lost that battle

Did I demand the whole world lock down to protect her?
15/

No

We isolated her at home

We bought cases of hand sanitizer

We stayed away from her the moment one of us got the slightest case of the sniffles

We took some fucking personal responsibility and did the best we could
16/

The US economy could have mitigated for the small percentage of economically active people that would have had to be isolated

People who had been on longterm unemployment could have plugged a lot of the gaps. For higher skilled jobs people could gave been promoted
17/

But no, lets go with fucking economic armageddon. Thus guaranteeing that vast swathes of the US population will be permanently cut off from the middle class once the bill for this shitshow comes due
18/

Lets tax people into oblivion thus crashing the welfare state as more and more people become dependent on it as time goes on

Lets create hyperinflation by devaluing currency past the point of no return

Lets destroy the small business people scrimped and saved to build
19/

>But my grandpa

Is your Grandpa more important than the vast swathes of Americans whose lives will be ruined by dragging out this lockdown?

To you? Maybe

Keep thinking about your personal needs while virtue signalling about "an economy that works for everyone"

That's gone
20/

Inb4 "young people are getting this too you know"

How many?

Which ones?

If you're talking about morons drinking vodka out of each others assholes on spring break 'til their livers look like camo I return you to my previous point

TAKE SOME FUCKING PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY
21/

Would a selective quarantine have been harder on at risk people?

Possibly

We wouldn't have had shortages

Hospitals would be better funded to help deal with cases

Charities helping those people wouldn't have seen donations crater

Delivery services would be less stretched
22/

You want to talk about PPE shortages?

How many people are currently walking round with N95 masks on that either wouldn't have had symptoms, wouldn't gave caught the disease, or have already had the disease & recovered?
23/

And before the reports start, let me say this

I am NOT a medical expert. I am not providing false or misleading medical advice

I am simply running a scenario and making common sense observations based on my knowledge of economics/obvious facts
24/

I'm not suggesting we change course now, it's too fucking late for that. Choices were made by pontificating academics

Theoretical models (many of which are constantly having to be revised) were followed like gospel

This entire thread = what might have been
25/

But bear one thing in mind. The people saying "WE MUST WAIT FOR A VACCINE BEFORE THINGS CAN GO BACK TO NORMAL" are the same ones telling you you may never be able to shake hands with people again

To these people the phrase "acceptable losses" doesn't factor into their plans
26/

The history of human achievement has been bloody and full of death

How many people died building the US into what it is today?

How many people died building the empire state building?

How many people died in wars to prevent authoritarian rule over the years?
27/

We could live in a world without premature death

We could spend the rest of our lives sheltered in place, eating our perfectly nutritionally balanced rations

We could ban alcohol, sex, contact sports, cars, planes, guns, and any job involving any degree of danger
28/

Hands up who wants to live in that world?

I want to a live in a world of human achievement

I want to live in a world where we balance risks against freedom

I smoke like a fucking chimney

Does that mean I'll die younger?

Of course it does

But it's my choice to make
29/

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