I'm going to make a general comment about gambling that I think transpires to many other things in life.

Streaks happen. Both positive and negative and they happen in much larger magnitudes than we tend to think are possible. /1 https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1247738134521155590

Correlated things may seem uncorrelated, selective memory lets us forget times we were "wrong" when we're usually right, and forget times we were "right" when we're usually wrong, the confidence shifts associated with our accuracy can improve or cloud judgement going forth. /2

At every stage in which I've been "too correct" I fall into the same traps of overconfidence when I can't miss. At every stage in which I've been "always wrong" I doubt myself, pass up opportunities, don't put my money where my mouth is and miss opportunities that come along. /3

I apologize for single you out Ryan but this was a perfect example of this fallacy- we've had several people who were "ahead of the curve" pertaining to Covid. In January they were 6 weeks ahead of everyone else. In early February maybe this fell to 4 weeks, then 2, then 0 etc /4

I think each and every person who more accurately "saw the writing on the walls" made this become a part of their self-concept and got used to being the guy who sees things before other do. /5

Rather than focusing on the facts at hand (which initially they more accurately assessed and drew better conclusions than average) I think many people have gotten too caught up in the narrative of seeing something everyone else missed and allowing their judgement to be clouded /6