• Would Messi be able to do it in the Premier League?
• How does La Liga compare to Premier League in terms of GA/G?
• How would the answer affect the Messi/Ronaldo debate?

A short thread. Please read until the end, the stats are worth it

#Messi #Ronaldo

The Premier League is much tougher to score in and keep a high G/G than La Liga especially over time.

Whilst Messi would be very good, his career G/G and A/G used in GOAT debates would be slashed had he played in the Premier League.

The G/G of top La Liga players:

1. Ronaldo (1.07)
2. Messi (0.92)
3. Telmo Zarra (0.90)
4. Puskás (0.87)
5. Edmundo Suarez (0.84)
6. Luis Suárez (0.79)
7. Pahiño (0.76)
8. Gorostiza (0.70)
9. Di Stefano (0.69)
10. Hugo Sánchez (0.67)

The G/G of top PL players:

1. Jimmy Greaves (0.69)
2. Aguero (0.69)
3. Henry (0.68)
4. Kane (0.68)
5. Aubamayang (0.65)
6. Salah (0.65)
7. Van Nistelrooy (0.63)
8. Suárez (0.63)
9. Lofthouse (0.62)
10. Kevan (0.60)

As you can see, it’s much easier to have a high G/G in La Liga. This is because Barca & Madrid monopolise the league, as well as there being less competition and adaptability in the league.

But how would Messi cope with this change?

As Aguero & Messi played together this is the best comparison we can make:

* Messi has a 0.51 G/G for Argentina
* Aguero has a 0.43 G/G for Argentina
* 0.08 G/G difference to Messi

Therefore, Messi’s G/G would only be 0.77 in the PL, a significant drop from his 0.92 in La Liga.

This is also a best case scenario. You can also compare with Luis Suárez for another view as he played for Barca.

* Suarez G/G in La Liga: 0.79
* Suarez G/G in PL: 0.63

If Messi had a similar 0.16 drop in G/G, then he’d only have a 0.76 G/G, once again a way off from 0.92.

Considering Messi’s drastic drop of 0.36 G/G from Barcelona to Argentina, it’s likely that it would be worse than around 0.15.

Had Messi gone 6 seasons of his career in the Premier League with a much lower G/G, then his total goal involvements would be much less.

* Now comparing to Ronaldo, for the 9 years in Spain together:

450 in 438 (1.03)
472 in 476 (0.99)

* When you look at international stats:

99 in 164 (0.60)
70 in 138 (0.51)

* Drop between Club & Country

0.75 —> 0.60 (0.15)
0.87 —> 0.51 (0.36)

In the areas where they have played together, CR7 beats Messi in G/G by a considerable amount.

He’s also much more adaptable to playing with different teams than Messi, proved by a lower drop in G/G

Had Messi played in the PL like CR7, his career G/G and GA/G would be lower.

Messi also has a GOAT argument for assists. But would they be maintained or once again dropped off in the PL?

This is an image of the best assists/game in La Liga. There may be players missing, as assists have only been recorded recently and as La Liga doesn’t have a database

This is how the Premier League compares. As you can see, the A/G on average for top players is considerably lower than in La Liga.

These are 100% accurate due to the PL stats database. For both, only players with 35+ assists were counted.

How does it look for La Liga players who move to Prem for their prime?

* Özil (0.51 —> 0.29)
* Fàbregas (0.39 —> 0.32)
* Sánchez (0.31 —> 0.20)
* Juan Mata (0.28 —> 0.20)

This further proves that la Liga players struggle to provide as many assists in the PL.

Another point to consider. Club representation in the top 15:

* Barcelona (7)
* Madrid (6)
* Valencia (1)
* Atletico (1)

Two clubs had a clear monopoly over the stats, there was hardly any representation of lower teams. Players also stayed put in the clubs that dominated.

The same statistic with the Premier League:

* United (4)
* Arsenal (4)
* City (3)
* Chelsea (3)
* Southampton (2)
* West Ham (2)
* Portsmouth (1)
* Spurs (1)
* Sheffield Wednesday (1)
* Charlton Athletic (1)

This shows that top players played for many different teams, even when you’re not playing against the top 6 you’re facing tougher opposition than you would in La Liga.

The G/G tells the same story too. Outside the top 6, West Ham, WBA & Bolton are represented.

Furthermore, from the top A/G in each league, you can see the PL has top players in many different clubs, whilst La Liga has almost all quality in 2.

For A/G:

10 Clubs represented 22 times
4 Clubs represented 15 times

What does this all mean for Messi in the PL?

With the only players who were top assisters in La Liga and remained top assisters in the Prem, their A/G fell on average 0.12.

At best case scenario his A/G would drop to 0.26. Considering his low adaptability proven by Argentina drop, it would likely be lower.

Had he been in the PL for all of his career his GA/G would be much worse than currently. It would be even worse than calculated as PL teams never stay on top for long due to investment.

This debunks the argument that Messi would create the same GOAT level stats in PL.

A fairer comparison can be made to the Messi Ronaldo debate.

Ronaldo spent (18-24 at United). He played in this exceptionally tough league against great opposition and it harmed his career GA/G.

Messi (18-24) won 4 Ballondor’s during these years and 3 Champions Leagues.

Had Messi been in a PL club for 18-24, his club wouldn’t be dominant for more than 3/6 years at best, therefore he’d win much less UCL & Bdor.

His overall G/G would be lower than CR7 and his A/G would drop (but remain higher than CR7). The overall GA/G would likely be identical.

The last point to consider is league titles. If Messi had spent all of his career in the PL, he’d have much less than his 10 league titles.

If he had spent 6 seasons in the PL like Ronaldo, he’d likely have at least 2-3 less.

This is because Barca are dominant. They have won 10 out of the last 15 titles.

Barca were this way before Messi, as he became a regular starter in 06/07 when they had won the league the last two years.

Messi also has 2 titles for this reason despite not being a starter.

What about Ronaldo at United? In the same 15 years, United have won just 5 out of the last titles.

When he became a regular starter in 04/05, United hadn’t won the title the last 2 years.

This shows Barca was successful before Messi, but United only became because of CR7.

Overall, at Barca Messi has always been in the most dominant team. In the PL he wouldn’t be for more than a few years, so he’d win a few less league titles, UCL and therefore Ballondor.

Had he played there for 6 seasons like CR7, the trophy stats would be much more equal.

His total GA/G would fall to around the level of CR7 throughout career. His A/G would remain ahead but still drop, whilst his G/G would decrease.

This is because of investment in the premier league many more teams have good players rather than just the top 2 like La Liga.

Therefore, Messi would be a great player in the PL if he was able to adapt well unlike at Argentina.

But even if he did and he had only played 6 seasons like CR7, his major trophy count would still hurt, and he wouldn’t create GOAT level stats whilst playing there.