Is it a nuke?

Countries may increasingly be asking this question, even before weapons are launched. In a new @CarnegieEndow report, @james_acton32 explains how pre-launch ambiguity can contribute to inadvertent escalation.

Read the report here: https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/04/09/is-it-nuke-pre-launch-ambiguity-and-inadvertent-escalation-pub-81446">https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/04/0...

As Acton writes, although pre-launch ambiguity has been a feature of nuclear-armed weapons for decades, there are now new types of ambiguous delivery systems today.

To date, pre-launched warhead ambiguity has been an overlooked danger. But the escalation risks associated with pre-launch ambiguity could be more serious than the post-launch risks.

So what should we do about it? While pre-launch ambiguity is is a shared problem, the United States can take a few unilateral steps, such as:

1) Exercise restraint in acquisitions
2) Be transparent about capabilities
3) Improve operational planning https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/04/09/is-it-nuke-pre-launch-ambiguity-and-inadvertent-escalation-pub-81446">https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/04/0...