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For a while, I’ve been strategically exercising my right not to have an opinion (much harder than it sounds). But I’m beginning to see a certain logic to Russia’s #COVID-19 measures. Mainly, Kremlin operates with less centralized control than we assume. THREAD
While Russia was the first to close its border with China in late Jan, Putin has been v cautious in 1) imposing nationwide lockdown 2) spending some pretty hefty reserves towards econ relief. He’s delegated this instead to regional heads and avoided spending a lot of money.
As a result, some interesting contrasts. Moscow’s Sobyanin has taken the lead on lockdown measures (which, despite fines and talk of QR code permits, are not legally enforceable yet). And he’s offering unemployed Muscovites 19,500 rubles a month.
Meanwhile, Chechnya’s Kadyrov closed the administrative border on April 5 and had police beat violators of self-isolation. https://meduza.io/en/news/2020/04/06/chechnya-s-leader-praises-the-cops-who-beat-up-a-man-for-violating-coronavirus-self-isolation
The next day, April 6, PM Mishustin said closing regional borders was unacceptable. Regional head Kadyrov started publicly arguing with the Prime Minister. https://www.rbc.ru/politics/06/04/2020/5e8b5bb59a79471132060fef
Meanwhile still, the Russian Orthodox Church was v reluctant to comply with calls – not orders – to close churches. Religious are still congregating closely in the name of fighting the virus, despite lockdown https://lenta.ru/news/2020/04/03/godbless/
Why can’t the Kremlin just do what autocratic governments do, rule from the center and impose measures as they please? Isn’t that what crises are for? Isn’t that what autocrats dream of doing? https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/coronavirus-and-the-threat-to-democracy-intl/index.html
And if govt fears economic crisis more than the epidemic, which it does, then why can’t it inject more money into its economy instead of hoarding? Even fiscal conservative Alexei Kudrin says government needs to spend more on anti-crisis measures. https://www.rbc.ru/economics/08/04/2020/5e8cf0e89a7947c077f4550f
I think there’s more to this than just indecision. Putin knowns that orders become meaningless when they are not obeyed. To issue orders that people will not obey erodes one’s power. For Putin that is existential.
Why not bring out the National Guard to ensure lockdown? Because even this summer, when Moscow’s streets saw some of the most violent crackdowns yet on protesters, the Kremlin balked at its own ferociousness and took a step back.
Why not order all regions to impose a state of emergency to fight COVID? Because Kremlin is afraid of lack of compliance, or worse, riots and protest that it would then have to suppress with violence. It doesn't want to do that.
As I’ve said before, the Kremlin tends to fear social unrest more than it’s warranted. Social cohesion among Russians is far stronger than the Kremlin tends to assume. 90% say they are self-isolating – in reality prob less, but it does show intent https://wciom.ru/index.php?id=236&uid=10223
And Russia has ample reserves to stimulate economy and give money to the regions https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/oil-uncertainty-keeps-russia-hoarding-cash-in-world-of-stimulus
But there’s a pattern here that’s very similar to traumatized thinking. No matter how bad things are, they can always get worse. Spending is conservative, an official told me, because money is being saved for when it’s “worse.”
And it can always get worse. The trouble with traumatized thinking is that you don’t really make plans, you have contingencies for things you can’t predict. You are always preparing for black swans and reacting to opportunities.
That doesn’t actually make you any better prepared. We’ve yet to see how this strategy will play out in managing the coronavirus crisis in Russia. I suspect this approach will deal with the actual epidemic better than the economic fallout.
Coupled with the looming constitutional changes, this decentralized, austere approach risks exactly the kind of tensions the Kremlin is trying to avoid. But we’ll see. Having stockpiles of savings is no bad thing – question of when to use them.
The wider issue is what this says about Kremlin control. When you look closely at these internal dynamics, the talk of Russia using COVID for “malign influence” or coordinated disinformation campaigns looks particularly unrealistic. /END
