As a little exercise (not to be taken seriously, but I might as well share the results) I took the UK& #39;s daily death figures from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir... and for each day I took that day& #39;s figure plus half the previous day& #39;s plus a quarter of the day before, and so on. 1/

That gave me the following sequence:

29, 29; 47, 62, 64; 87, 91, 99, 136; 107, 166; 262, 389, 402, 382; 569, 846, 990; 1181, 1295, 1267, 1069, 1317, 1595.

I& #39;ve put semicolons as a rough indication of where a new power of 2 is passed, to give an idea of a logarithmic scale. 2/

It looks as though the slope is going down noticeably. (I& #39;m not sure, however, whether this website goes by date recorded or date of death. In the latter case, the more recent numbers could go up quite a bit.) I took that combination of numbers as a way of smoothing .... 3/

out the curve, but it was only partially successful. But it does seem to show a fairly consistent 3-day doubling time until the number passed 1000, and it now seems as though it will take a lot longer to reach 2000, ... 4/

which is what we& #39;d get after a sustained period of 1000 deaths per day. This suggests to me that the UK isn& #39;t that far out of line with other European countries. It also suggests, rather painfully, that if we& #39;d done everything a week earlier, ... 5/

then the number of deaths would have been about four times smaller. That would have been an awful lot of lives saved. If you prefer the half-full version, it& #39;s good we didn& #39;t wait another week, or the numbers would have been about four times as large. 6/6