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1/n #Gangelt is a small town & municipality in Germany, right on the border with the Netherlands, very near Maastricht. A special in-depth serological + etc. study, the “ #Covid19 Case-Cluster-Study", is being carried out there, and the first interim report is now out.
2/ #Gangelt (highlighted, w/ red border below) has, importantly, all of 12,446 people in it (not counting the present researcher team). Its most famous inhabitant was Gerardus Mercator. The “ #Covid19 Case-Cluster-Study" there was launched on Tuesday 31. March.
cc. @CathyYoung63
cc. @CathyYoung63
3/ The Preliminary Results & Conclusions of the #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study ( #Gangelt Municipality) [Vorläufiges Ergebnis und Schlussfolgerungen der COVID-19 Case-Cluster-Study (Gemeinde Gangelt)] is now out:
https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf
https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf
4/n #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study consists in total of @ 1,000 inhabitants (from 12.5k people) from @ 400 households. Questionaires & pharyngeal swabs were performed, & blood samples tested for IgG & IgA antibodies against #SARSCoV2.
cc. @NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone
cc. @NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone
5/n Importantly, the Preliminary Results & Conclusions of the #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study are drawn from only @ 500 people (out of a total of @ 1,000 people in the study, out of @ 12.5k inhabitants).
cc. @NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1248248442511450114
cc. @NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1248248442511450114
6/n #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study preliminary results:
a/ @ 14% test positive for #SARSCoV2 IgG, spec. >,99 %. Serological test.
b/ additionally @ 2% test positive for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. PCR test.
c/ Infection rate therefore @ 15%.
This is all in a #COVID19 hotspot.
a/ @ 14% test positive for #SARSCoV2 IgG, spec. >,99 %. Serological test.
b/ additionally @ 2% test positive for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. PCR test.
c/ Infection rate therefore @ 15%.
This is all in a #COVID19 hotspot.
7/n The reason why #Gangelt was chosen for this study is because it is in Heinsberg district ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinsberg_(district)), which was the site of the first big #COVID19 cluster in Germany ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Germany). You can see how Gangelt fits into #Heinsberg district below.
8/n The #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study made an initial conclusion of an IFR ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate#Terminology) of 0.37 %, at a time when the CFR in the whole of Germany was 1.98 % (JHU numbers). IFR will always be lower than CFR, because it captures the hidden number of asymptomatics etc.
9/n The mortality rate ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate) for the whole population of #Gangelt is at 0.15 % at this time. For Heinsberg district as a whole, the first epicentre of #COVID19 outbreak in Germany, presently around 1,400 cases & 39 deaths. >690 people have recovered.
10/ Overall in Germany: "So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proven". #SARSCov2 was detected by PCR on "remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles" BUT NOT in infectious form. https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/how-german-scientists-hope-to-find-answers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot
11/ My own conclusions from all this:
a/ In a big #COVID19 hotspot, only around 15% of the population proved positive for exposure. So much for "half the population" fad-theory people.
b/ Surfaces are not dangerous for transmission.
cc. @NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone
a/ In a big #COVID19 hotspot, only around 15% of the population proved positive for exposure. So much for "half the population" fad-theory people.
b/ Surfaces are not dangerous for transmission.
cc. @NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone
11c/ What IS dangerous is people. The entire #COVID19 outbreak in #Heinsberg district is traced back to a couple who attended a local Karneval festival. It all kicked off from there.
d/ IFR is @ 0.37 % at a CFR of @ 2 %; that will go slightly up. That captures the hidden number.
d/ IFR is @ 0.37 % at a CFR of @ 2 %; that will go slightly up. That captures the hidden number.
12/ Further info: the #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study ( #Gangelt Municipality) [COVID-19 Case-Cluster-Study (Gemeinde Gangelt)] is run by @hendrikstreeck and @hbergprotokoll. Further useful hashtags: #heinsbergprotokoll, #heinsberg. Good report: https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/corona-in-heinsberg-jeder-siebte-koennte-immun-sein-a-14bd9e0e-0c7e-4775-a8b0-1611ececd870?sara_ecid=soci_upd_KsBF0AFjflf0DZCxpPYDCQgO1dEMph
I want to put the below in context. It's my firm belief that spread of #COVID19 in Wuhan was greatly increased by unhygienic markets & communal toilets. When the Germans speak of negligable risk in restaurants, for example, they're talking w/ good hygiene https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1248263715281141760
UPDATE: I know the link given in this thread is no longer operative. I have found two more links, and I have downloaded the report myself, but there are two different versions. See my new update thread: https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1248452060137156609
