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This is SO important. Preliminary results from the first COVID-19 antibody survey of an affected community.
Heavily impacted town of Gangelt, Germany:
14% of 500 randomly sampled people were antibody positive
Implied infection mortality rate -> 0.37%
https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf
Heavily impacted town of Gangelt, Germany:
14% of 500 randomly sampled people were antibody positive
Implied infection mortality rate -> 0.37%
https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf
So this would suggest that COVID-19 is about 3-4 times more lethal than an annual flu, assuming patients have adequate access to health care.
The full study plans to sample another 500 people, which may refine this a bit more.
The full study plans to sample another 500 people, which may refine this a bit more.
Also, since we know that COVID-19 mortality is heavily skewed by age, it will be important to know if the study group has captured a representative age distribution. That part hasn't been reported yet.
