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This is interesting but annoyingly, #transition extension is not a straightforward yes/no question. It might even require several rounds of talks. Why? Short thread https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1247927911472140290
1. Terms: UK-EU joint committee (JC) has to agree extension conditions: including UK contributions to EU budget ££ for the extra time. The problem is - JC only meeting again in June, which is v close to 1 July deadline.
2. Speaking of terms: withdrawal agreement says the transition can only be extended ONCE and for a max of 2 years. So important to get length right. UK's budget contributions calculated on basis of next EU seven-yr budget. Problem is.. EU countries haven't agreed the budget yet.
3. EU process: EU Commission can only agree to an extension in the JC *after* it has secured the approval of member states. EU27 are likely to say yes to an extension - but EU must set aside time for JC talks + internal EU27 talks.
4. No last-minute agreement: EU will agree to an extension, but they don't want it to be a last-minute decision. More here: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/eu-contemplating-longer-brexit-transition-period
