Interesting thread. A couple of thoughts, which don't directly relate to the merit of Dutch. Italian or German position. The whole case demonstrates the power of individual, small member states and is a bit of a myth buster regarding member states 'are overruled' by Eurocrats. /1 https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1248180520011345922

For one, NL can block a solution. Whether this is right or wrong, I don't know but it demonstrates that individual member states have a veto and can (or rather will) use it at their convenience. /2

Obviously it depends on the area. In some areas member states can be overruled, but in practice the consent principle spills over. The idea is not to alienate through change (which can lead to alienating through lack of change btw). /3

However, even though you will find that NL resistance is genuine and other countries who are now 'not a problem' but rather supportive for NL side of the argument push back, there are structural factors pushing their actors to move. /4

While I think it's exaggerated that Euro or EU is in danger, I do think an escalation could be very costly. This and the fact that nearly all member states acknowledge that help is needed will put all member states under pressure to facilitate a solution. /5

Obviously, talks can always collapse. But it's rather unlikely that they do because of NL, if they collapse then because no option managed to get consensus backing. /6

Given number potential veto players, consensus forming takes time. A lot of time. That's often not understood or misleadingly labeled as crisis (e.g. remember long lasting coalition talks in 2017-2018 in GER & Andrew Neil's claim it was the worst after war crisis in GER)? /9

It wasn't a crisis, it just takes longer. It also provides you with the opportunity to think your options through. If you look on the occurring problems of HMG's 'emergency budget' for Corona, you get what I mean: 2-3 days for a budget creates problems. /10

In certain situation it also can be problematic, because there is a hard deadline. But I struggle to see one in the moment. EU and members have more than a couple of weeks to pan out a solution - and this is better than getting one now which is half-backed and semi-resented. /11

In short: instead of crying crisis the big picture is relevant. Actors are moving fast and seem to recognise urgency. Consensus forming takes time and there is time. It may go bust, but we are not there yet. /12

Last bit not least, if you now direct to Brexit and say it provides an alternative for Italy I would think twice. UK looks very bad at the meant, not just with Corona but also with Brexit (and transition exit with little prep). /13

I'm not sure how this could provide a role model. I struggle to see any (likely) development that puts UK to faster and stronger path of recovery - there is little to no evidence for it. If countries like Italy leave or have referendums, they will do it despite Brexit. /14

Same with leaving Euro by the way. It may happen but campaigners will rather trying to distance themselves from UK's course. And putting USA into that? Well, looking at the current developments I struggle to see a) good crisis management b) political stability. /15

UK and USA are the worst role models Italian Eurosceptics can pick, and looking at their rhetoric they don't make any overly prominent references to them. They rather point out flaws in EU's response (or what they perceive as flaws). /16

Because pointing to UK or USA in this moment and saying, look they do well is... ermmm... brave. Bit what about a speedy recovery? Sure can happen, but how likely is that? And don't forget, transition period runs out at the end of the years. /17

If UK doesn't extent they get another external shock on top of the Corona-Virus aftermath. How shall they recover anytime soon? And if they extent, how does it help Eurosceptics given that it demonstrates power and relevance of EU? /18

And remember, next year are also SCO elections. Two crises can easily lead to another one: the persistent call for another referendum backed by a majority for SNP. Long story in short, Brexit or USA as supportive reference points are closed avenues for a exit narrative. /19

I tag some political scientists and commenters, I wonder what they think of it. @simonjhix @rdanielkelemen @BrigidLaffan @APHClarkson @KeohaneDan @HzBrandenburg @JXB101 @Muinchille @odtorson @Sime0nStylites @DaveKeating @pmdfoster 20/20