Few notes on Rescue Plan (Thread)

1)Funding
$15B in external help needed is too conservative
Economic stimulus: Back to CEDRE? I.e. additional min $5B needed
Such international support is impossible without IMF program & oversight
Let’s not waste time: let’s engage the IMF asap

2)Deposit Recovery Fund

“State assets & recovered funds from anti corruption strategy” belong to all citizens
They can’t be earmarked to large depositors alone

The idea of creating a fund is good.
Making large depositors senior by giving them first access to such fund is wrong

3) As I proposed before:
Split Banks into Good Bank/Bad Bank

-Deposit Recovery Fund owns the assets of the Bad Bank & collects the proceeds of the restructuring of public debt
-Good bank to be capitalised with fresh $
-Small depositors remain in the good bank & be guaranteed

4)Fiscal reform
Raising taxes in midst of deep economic contraction is recipe for more collapse
First:Cut expenses & waste: EDL deficit, public sector inefficiencies, Debt servicing bill, Tax & Customs evasion
And stimulate the economy & productive sectors with incentives schemes

5)More generally
Serious figures
Some bold ideas
Some deja vu
Some ambiguity mainly on banking
Some wildly optimistic assumptions: FX, debt projection...

And the elephant in the room:
Is there political will to implement drastic reforms
Will the international community support