Every few months, we are told that #Iran is losing its grip on the region. First, it's due to the sanctions "that would not allow it to fund its military activity", then because "the IDF has succeeded in winning the campaign against Iran's entrenchment in Syria" (1/11). https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1248166268311605251

then because of protests in Lebanon and Iraq, then because of the protests in Iran, then because of Soleimani's assassination and finally because of COVID-19 (2/11).

And time & time again, Iran proves that, despite its limitations & weaknesses (and there are many that have been exacerbated in recent years), it manages to hold on, turn threats into opportunities & preserve not only the regime's survival but its regional influence (3/11).

Why? Because it matters too much to them, because it serves vital Iranian interests; because they know how to play the game, certainly in comparison to other players in the region who don't know or don't want to play it;...(4/11).

because they are pragmatic & know how to adjust their strategy to the changing circumstances; because they have patience; and because they are determined (5/11).

Kazemi is certainly not the one the Iranians would like to see as Iraq's PM. But when they had to choose between him and Zurfi, they were able to unite the major political forces in Iraq against the one perceived by them as a significant threat to their interests in Iraq (6/11).

And all this was not done by Soleimani, but by Shamkhani, who visited Baghdad last month & met with Kazemi, & by the new Qods Force Cmdr Qa'ani, who visited Iraq last week. Yes, the same Qa'ani who some claimed to be "incompetent" who would never get into Soleimani's shoes (7/11)

What is true about Iran's regional influence is also true about the stability of its regime or economy. Iran has certainly faced many challenges both at home and abroad (8/11).

But its regime is not going to fall so quickly, its economy is not going to collapse so quickly, and its regional influence is not declining so quickly. For many, it's frustrating, it's disappointing, but that's the situation at least for now (9/11).

Anyone who continues to eulogize Iran's regime & promote strategies based on the assumption that we are about to get a new Middle East without the Islamic Republic ("on the verge of collapse"), without Khamenei ("on the verge of death") or without the pro-Iranian militias (10/11)

will be forced again and again to contend with reality (11/11). End.