A few of you have asked for my projection(s).
Look at the dates and the statements. We are right where I calculated on March 19th.

As always, this isn't to scare. It's to let you know that we have the ability to see what can happen so we can plan ahead.

#PlanningPreventsPanic

This was a midline projection, not worst-case scenario. I adjusted and averaged the rate of exposure for social distancing at the time and the curve dropped.

Our interactions are still too high at roughly 15.1 interactions per person per day in the US.

We need it at <2/Pi/day

We need <2/Pi/day for 19 days.
At <2/personal interactions/day, the incidences drop, health care capacity is not overwhelmed, and people have time to heal if they are sick while those who are healthy remain so.

If any have signs or symptoms, they can quarantine themselves.

If we can get to 19 days of <2/Pi/day, we can stop this virus by mid-May.

It won't go away but that time allows us to prepare for a second wave in the fall. Again, #PlanningPreventsPanic.

Rather than months, we can stop it in 3 weeks.

#StayHomeStaySafeStayHealthy