Just read through the latest Covid-19 modeling. It’s a pretty sobering picture of the challenge ahead.

Only in the most “optimistic” scenario is 4 weeks of Level 4 lockdown enough to contain Covid-19. That still involves several months at Level 3.

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But both the “realistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios show moving to Level 3 after 4 weeks of lockdown only results in another outbreak. That would mean going back to Level 4 again.

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45 days at Level 4 (an extra 2.5 weeks) also results in containment. But only *3 months* of Level 4 restrictions are enough to eliminate Covid-19.

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We still have an opportunity most of the world doesn’t have here - and numbers could be better than this model suggests. But boy, do we have a long way to go.

Full modelling available here: https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/Stochastic-Model-FINAL-RELEASE.pdf

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The good news? We're tracking towards the optimistic scenario, and the model's lead author says it may be too conservative.

Good analysis from @marcdaalder here: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/09/1122705/we-could-have-had-200-new-covid-19-cases-today