Talking to friends tonight I realized there was confusion around the difference between a #coronavirus 'peak' and 'plateau'. Both are used to describe what may hopefully happen soon in NYC.

So let me explain how they differ, what's more likely, and why it matters.

MINI THREAD:

A 'peak' means cases rise, reach a maximum, then go down about as quickly as they shot up.

This is unlikely. It's just not how viruses like this work. This is not what I expect for NYC.

Alternatively, there's the 'plateau'. This is when cases rise, level off for some time, and then slowly drop.

This is likely what we will see in NYC.

This plateau can last days or even weeks.

During this plateau, deaths will remain high. The ERs & ICUs will still be very busy.

Even if a 'plateau' sounds reassuring, it's still an intense time. Beds and resources will be stretched thin, especially for #COVID19 since so many people are hospitalized or on mechanical ventilation for extended periods.

A 'plateau' is certainly better than a continued rise...

But it's also no time to let up.

We need to remain vigilant as cases level off. Otherwise we risk another rise in cases and a repeat in the cycle.

You've heard me say it before.

Please stay home. Stay safe.

And if you have to go out, WEAR A MASK!

Let's get through this NYC!