In a development that will surprise precisely no one, it appears that the media and certain politicians and governors are going the characterize the news that the models - the ones that caused us to shut down our country, ruin our economy, put millions out of work...
...and permanently shutter untold numbers of businesses, large and small - were dead wrong by a factor of about six, as proof that their leadership in ordering and supporting these shutdowns was the variable that turned the tide. They will do so fully cognizant of the fact that..
...those who produced the models say that they factored the almost-national shut down into their algorithms. They will do so in lieu of drawing attention to the fact that the failure of those creating the models and the reliance placed upon those models have placed our country...
...in what is possibly the most precarious economic situation we've experienced in our history.

This is not an indictment of politicians who took drastic action based on the models - they had no choice. This is not an indictment of the governors who oversold their needs...
...to make sure they had more than enough to weather the predicted storm - that's their job.

It's an indictment of the professional competence of the people and organizations who created these models. This isn't a rounding area on a flu season prediction, or a near miss on the
...data. This is a catastrophic failure, in every sense of the phrase.

If there were ever a need for a "national conversation," a congressional committee, a special counsel - this would be that time. We put all of our trust, most of our money, and at least a couple months of...
...our lives into the accuracy of those models, and most of us bit our tongues, put our heads down and just did what we were told. Because people were dying and nobody had any interest in listening to a bunch of heartless cretins putting lifestyle before lives. And they've...
...got a point - there is a certain amount of selfishness in worrying about yourself, your family, and your future when people are dying. But it doesn't erase the fact that all of those futures are intrinsically tied to that of the country, and it's the responsibility of those...
...in power to make the hard decisions to ensure that, above all else, the future of the country is foremost in their decision matrix. I don't know that that happened here. I could be wrong - I'm open to argument against my opinion - but I think we did this wrong, and I don't...
...think it'll do any good to console ourselves that we did it wrong for the right reasons. We got fed a batch of bad data, and we voluntarily ruined our economic lives as a result. Every reporter on earth should be focusing on those models and the methodology used in their...
...development. Every politician in DC should be doing the same.

Instead, out of either habit or cowardice - or both - we're going to watch them all try to convince us that shutting down the country is why we're coming in way under model projections, when the truth may...
...well be - appears to be, in fact - that the models factored that in and got it exponentially wrong.

I am keenly aware that we are still in the throes of this beast and that thousands of families are dealing with the unimaginable pain and heartache of losing a loved one...
...to this virus, or anxiously awaiting word on the condition of loved ones they are not allowed to visit. I mean no disrespect to them or anyone else who has been devastated by this. While my comments may appear to them and others as devoid of compassion or empathy, this...
...is simply not the case. I just believe it's important to do what we can to limit the likelihood of grief on top of more grief on top of even more grief as we deal with current and future crises such as this, and I think it begins and ends with the models.
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