Over the weekend I wrote a #longread on the what I believe some of the new normal post COVID may look like. A few people suggested that I tweet the key takeaways /1

A mandated push to preventive medicine in the form of required health tests. Employers and government institutions will require an up-to-date listing document showing what vaccines you have taken and test results for specific diseases (e.g. COVID). /2

The decentralization and digitization of healthcare.  This will build upon the desire to cut costs in the system and reflect people’s experience with COVID. Early change here will be the move to digital consultations. It will start with simple consultations and diagnostics. /3

Regional licensing standards will allow doctors and nurses to practice remotely. /4

A new consumer frugality. Consumers in the mid-thirties to mid-fifties have taken on significant debt and have seen their equities impaired a couple of times. This will cause them and their kids to be significantly more frugal about what they buy and invest in. /5

Institutional investors will see their allocation to alternative assets grow: They will find it even harder to find required returns in public markets and will focus on “higher return” asset classes. This implies that valuations will continue to rise over the long run. /6

A New New Deal and more socialized services. There is going to be expectations of more monetary support to ensure people maintain their quality of life (food, shelter, healthecare and retraining). This means government is going to get bigger and more involved in our lives. /7

Higher taxes disproportionately applied to the “rich.” Government has to pay for the new programs and pay off its debt. Global taxes need to increase. Taxes applied to sectors of the economy associated with the wealthy like real estate transactions, capital gains & inheritance./8

The acceleration of stakeholder capitalism. During the crisis many enterprises have either focused on the needs of their communities and employees. This will compel or force business to care for other stakeholders as we emerge from this pandemic. /9

Less public consumption of wealth.  The wealthy will be more private and want more space. This will be reflected in many small changes. Fewer social media postings, more private consumption and new businesses will be started to serve their needs. /10

Public vs private sector employee fights: Over decades public sector employees have continued to see improvement in overall pay and work relative to private sector. As taxes rise & people struggle, resentment towards public sector employees will rise. /11

The further acceleration of closed borders to movement of people and goods: Governments are going to try to improve employment at home by reducing the accessibility to their markets. /12

Inflation or war and I expect it to be war: The easiest way to reduce your debt is to encourage inflation. I don’t believe this possible. The next best way to reduce debt (and unemployment)? War. We will see more wars over the next decade. /13

A new cold war: China versus USA. The US looks disorganized, weak and isolationist. Expect China to take advantage of this and fill the void and explicitly challenge the US. /14

For the logic and details read the entire post here: https://www.notion.so/n49p/Considering-the-New-Normal-in-a-post-COVID-world-b644bd5fa99a4ae4ace71336d1b9161f