Tonight, I will provide two simple models based on research I’ve previously tweeted about for NYC. Assumption #1 the median days since infection to death is approximately 23 days; assumption 2 the infection fatality rate for a generic population distribution, approximates 0.66 1/

..percent; assumption #3, fever data collected by KINSA, ought to approximate the success of personal distancing measures which indicate that for New York City, which showed that on March 24 the level of fevers were below March I levels before the outbreak began in NYC. 2/

This implies that at some point, the rates of deaths and infections were brought close to the limit of zero. That time ought to be close to 23 days after March 24, plus, or, minus a week or so, ought to represent a period of very few deaths. Here are today’s #
3/

So, on about March 16, 0.66 of the population in NYC, were infected and 4260 died. Expanding the number of dead, back to the median time results in approximately a total population infected in NYC on or about March 16, 2020 approximately 645,455. Then, that represented ...4/

..7.5 % of the total, global population of NYC. Remember though that within a week or so, the personal distancing measures indicated that KINSA data fell abruptly. This is what we ought to expect if that assumption is true over the next week or so. 5/

The implications are that at most we probably reached only 15% of the population being infected, one can see that leaves millions still exposed to risk, particularly those over 44 and/or with medical complications. 6/

Clearly, how we proceed will determine the ultimate number of fatalities, regardless of the wishful thinking of tRUmp. I incorrectly believed we had crossed 20 %, a week or so ago, in NYC. As Fauci, has said we need to reintegrate very cautiously. Things will not be normal...7/

...until we have 70% who are producing antibodies for SARS Cov-2, certainly not before. The model I’m using here is entirely/contingent on the accurate measurement of the underlying assumptions. I will present at least a second model a week from now, which at that time...8/

Ought to inform, the dual paths that could follow about how quickly and relatively safely we ramp up to 70% of the global US NYC population, and by generality the entire US population. I know Gov. Cuomo’s office has given serious consideration to these issues. 9/

What will inform Gov Cuomo with high confidence - when the state is able to assess the serological antibody surveys of cities and counties, about the prevalence in those communities of individuals with antibodies for SARS-Cov-2. Then, within specific communities individuals..10/

..can be reintroduced based on their specific risk factors buttressed by the testing data. That will complete the testing debacle all were confronted with, because of tRUmp’s failure to ensure testing till two months after the first US infections. 11/