Question to make sure I'm not off base here:

The hot new narrative is that "Recessions/pandemics accelerate underlying trends."

Does anyone have proof of this?

I've seen this parroted by a few top thinkers--like the biggy influencers in the entertainment Twitter world--but is there evidence for it?

I'm thinking research papers, economic analysis, even just historical data.

My gut is this has not been proven. We don't have many data points (Great Recession, Great Depression, 1987, oil crisis in 1970s). Did those all accelerate or decelerate trends?

And if we don't have the data, then many of those thinkers should say, "I think this will accelerate trends".

That would require a level of humility to admit this isn't based on a given truth, but someone's opinion.

Instead, I'd say the pandemic-cum-recession will accelerate some trends, decelerate others and anyone who claims they know which is which is more fortune teller than predictor.

Now more than ever, we need less certainty in our strategic thinkers and opinion makers. C'mon guys! Be humble!

BTW, if you want my case study in how to make predictions, here goes. It held up really well: https://entertainmentstrategyguy.com/2018/07/10/lets-predict-will-mergers-and-activity-increase-in-entertainment-after-the-att-time-warner-approval-part-i/

Also, how do you separate sooth-saying/fortune telling from good forecasting?

Look for the baseline/numbers. If someone tells you a trend will accelerate, they better have numbers clarifying the trend.

Then they should tell you have fast it will accelerate in numbers.