Here is a better interpretation:

The original estimate of 1 million - 2.2 million dead was too high.

The 100K-250K deaths was a better one that assumed a certain parameters. We could still hit 100K pretty easily if things go bad.

There are signs that things won't go that bad.

One of the more annoying things in all this are the people who assume that Trump is privy to some all-knowing perfect-prediction secret intelligence source & therefore has no excuses for perfect knowledge and execution.

Friends, that is not a thing that exists.