Here& #39;s a very useful website that predicts #COVID19 hospitalizations and deaths over time by country and state. You can see how your country or state is doing resisting #SARSCOV2. Of course much uncertainty given different countermeasures. Of note... (1/3) https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america">https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-st...

US total fatalities would be 60k if all countermeasures remain, which is not realistic. For comparison 60k is the upper range of annual flu deaths. US total has net shortage of beds. For California, we are below annual flu fatalities and needs are well within capacity... (2/3)

Another prediction is that deaths in US and CA peak on 4/15. This is 25 days from New York and CA shutdowns, and matches the 25-day mean infection-to-death lag described in papers, which I had also used for my crude model. But I now think the peak may end up closer to 4/11. (3/3)