I'm following today's Alberta update on #COVID19. We're starting off with Premier Jason Kenney talking about modelling for the future of the disease in the province.

Because Alberta is testing at a "much higher" frequency than other provinces, there are more cases being picked up, Kenney says.

Kenney says the most important stat to monitor is the number of COVID-19 patients being hospitalized, and more specifically how many need to be treated in the ICU.

When you drill down to Alberta's hospitalizations compared to B.C., Ontario or Quebec, Alberta's rate is much lower and doing better than the large provinces, Kenney says. ICU admissions are along the same track.

The premier says Alberta has been "ahead of the curve" in terms of tracing and containment of COVID-19. Alberta also has a very young population, and so that matters in terms of what the province has seen for the spread of infection.

A "disproportionate" number of people who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Alberta are younger, Kenney says, but a disproportionate number of people who have died from the virus are elderly.

Supplies are "critical" to Alberta's future COVID-19 response, including the reagent used for testing. The province had an issue sourcing enough at one point, but that's been solved for the moment.

Alberta has seen 50 new COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours. That's a relatively low number — Kenney says the variation in testing number is "generally a reflection of the tests we've done."

The models to trace the future trajectory of COVID-19 in Alberta are "not infallible" and are a best effort at planning, Kenney says.

"There are folks out there who just say, 'open everything up.' ... If we did that, I think the consequences would be truly catastrophic in terms of lost life," Kenney says.

Alberta would be seeing an extreme peak of infections right now if not for physical distancing measures, Kenney says.

Alberta's "probable" scenario for COVID-19 calls for 800,000 total infections, which is a large number, but Kenney says that number accounts for total estimated cases — confirmed and spread through the community that isn't detected.

. @jasonfherring has a very good thread outlining the data and specific numbers Kenney is going over right now: https://twitter.com/jasonfherring/status/1248005044017848325?s=20

Kenney: When the pandemic is over, there's going to be a lot of pressure on the health system to get through "non-essential" surgeries that have had to be postponed to make sure there are enough beds for COVID-19 patients.