What is the longer-term impact of Covid-19 on higher education? Three possible scenarios, obviously shaped by the duration and re-emergence of the virus: 1/11

Scenario 1 (least likely): Return to Normal. Similar to previous recessions where we have an economic hit as state budgets suffer reductions. Even in this scenario, it will be significant hit because universities are already lean compared with 2008 2/11

Scenarios 2 (likely): Severe Reorganization. Academic program closures, deep staff layoffs and support program closures, tenured faculty positions eliminated. Administrative departments closed. 3/11

Scenario 3 (most likely): Carnage. Universities closed. 30+% budget cuts for state systems (see what happened in Alaska last year). Significant staff, faculty, administrator layoffs. Forced amalgamation of universities in same system. Culling of many programs. 4/11

Obviously these scenarios depend on: a) how long this goes, b) private or public schools, c) current financial strength of the school, d) what the public accepts. 5/11

Some universities may opt to engage in network effects by sharing curriculum and collaborating with support services. But the sector is far leaner than it was in the 2008 financial crisis. Cuts now will hurt immediately. 6/11

The current public sentiment in many parts of the USA does not look favorably on higher education (i.e. seen as an indoctrination camp at worst or disconnected from the labour market at best). 7/11

The edtech market for "education for employment" is more developed than it was in 2008 as well. If I was unemployed and looking to study for a new career, I'd look more at alternative providers in data/comp science than at universities. 8/11

Previously, the higher education sector often saw a surge in enrolment during and post-recessions. That's not going to happen this time. That potential population is already aggressively being courted by other providers ( @coursera and @OpenEdX ). 9/ 11

Hardly surprising, but the impact will be uneven on campuses. Some departments, like data science programs with a recruitment pipeline via Coursera/edx will flourish. The humanities/social science decline will accelerate in all three scenarios. 10/11

The big unknown in this is students and how they respond. In many regions previously, such as PR, South Africa, students lead an uprising to funding cuts. But the public is anxious now. Everyone has their own personal worries. Protests may not be as successful. 11/11