I own a food service business and have almost no issues in getting supplies. I am concerned that the next few weeks may change the availability of supplies with huge implications. @jimcramer @andrewrsorkin 1/

The suppliers who ship directly to me. All of them have reported that their sales are down at least 50%. My fish guy, my general supplier, and my bakery supplier. Each has cut their delivery days to 3 days a week. The only issues have been in order cleaning supplies. 2/

I also goto Restaurant Depot, supermarkets and Costco for fill in supplies. For supermarkets I have faced almost no availability issues- just the same things you as a regular consumer has. Also dealing with lines.This has pushed me to use my general supplier for more items 3/

Even though they are more expensive for some items. Restaurant depot has become worse than ever. (I have a blog post in my mind about what a horribly run nightmare the place is -- the bane of every small biz owner.) When the initial crisis hit Depot was stuck with lots of 4/

fresh produce and fresh sea food. To cut their losses the offered big discounts. Since then the have NO FRESH SEAFOOD and much more limited produce- It took 4 days for tomatoes and bananas to come in when they used to arrive 5-6 days a week. 5/

Depot is always a challenge to navigate but they , like other food distributors, have decided to allow the public in. Total chaos has resulted, making it MORE difficult for me to get what i need (and as noted moving more to big supplier). 6/

I spoke with manager who said it was a combo of ordering less, shipping issues and supply issues. In speaking with other friends in the biz they are starting to hear that produce and other supply is becoming an issue as the distributors order less to serve a smaller 7/

customer base. Similar Comments were also made about protein availability.

My large distributor is clearly drawing down inventories offering me amazing deals on staples. 8/

If you think about it. Less demand will result in less production and less or no profitability for producers further curtailing production. Whatever production exists will face issues getting to market / distributors as logistic firms cut address lower volumes. 9/.

Assuming that demand and supply balance and reset to a lower level ( a substantial assumption) a key risk is ability to get the product to the right distributors and stores. No sure thing.
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One last thing. When the nightmare ends it is going to take time for supply chain to get filled and get product to all the stores/restaurants that have closed. You many not be able to go to your local restaurant when it re-opens for some time.
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Would love to hear feedback on this #PeterNavarro @NRNonline
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