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40/70/90:
Win forty percent white support
Seventy percent brown support
Ninety percent black support
With decent turnout and Trump loses. https://twitter.com/amyeve/status/1247984419882692613
Win forty percent white support
Seventy percent brown support
Ninety percent black support
With decent turnout and Trump loses. https://twitter.com/amyeve/status/1247984419882692613
Showing my work:
1988 was the last time dems saw 40/70/90 and lost.... And that's when the electorate was 85 percent white. If dems turnout, it could be 70 or below for the first time ever.
1988 was the last time dems saw 40/70/90 and lost.... And that's when the electorate was 85 percent white. If dems turnout, it could be 70 or below for the first time ever.
1992:
39/61/83
Close to 40/70/90 but a three way race kept Bush white margins down and he lost 370-168.
39/61/83
Close to 40/70/90 but a three way race kept Bush white margins down and he lost 370-168.
1996: 44/72/84 (Bill ran worse than Hillary with Black voters)
Anyway Bill beat Dole 379-159 for four more years of dem court packing.
Anyway Bill beat Dole 379-159 for four more years of dem court packing.
2006 midterms:
47/69/89...... Hello speaker Pelosi!
When dems hit these marks it's hard to lose post 1988.
47/69/89...... Hello speaker Pelosi!
When dems hit these marks it's hard to lose post 1988.
2008:
43/67/95
Ten million vote margin and the first black president. Nancy picked up 21 more house seats.
43/67/95
Ten million vote margin and the first black president. Nancy picked up 21 more house seats.
2012: 39/71/93
Barack won enough white support to win a second term by a fairly comfy margin and to move us forward.
Barack won enough white support to win a second term by a fairly comfy margin and to move us forward.
2018: 44/69/90
We win 40 house seats and Pelosi is speaker again.
We win 40 house seats and Pelosi is speaker again.
What dems need to Worry about?
Trump getting to 35 or ABOVE with brown voters. That throws a monkey wrench in the 40/70/90 game.
These two fell victim to that.
Al was 42/62/90 (W got 35 percent Hispanic support)
John was at 41/53/88 (W was at 44 percent brown support.
Trump getting to 35 or ABOVE with brown voters. That throws a monkey wrench in the 40/70/90 game.
These two fell victim to that.
Al was 42/62/90 (W got 35 percent Hispanic support)
John was at 41/53/88 (W was at 44 percent brown support.
Lastly... LACK OF WHITE SUPPORT WILL DOOM US.
38 is the hard cut off before we get into trouble. (I thought we could go as low as 36 in 2016... Uh uh.
38 is the hard cut off before we get into trouble. (I thought we could go as low as 36 in 2016... Uh uh.
