Bernie or Bust voters:

When you’re ready for it, a thread for your consideration. It’s about SCOTUS.
Read it through & digest before becoming defensive.

There are 2 electable people running for president in Nov. (electable meaning “within the realm of reasonable possibility”).

One of the is the incumbent, right-wing populist Trump, and the other is centrist Biden.

Neither of these candidates is “good”. But the shape of the country for the next 20-30 years and the possibility of progressivism’s success will be determined on November 3rd.

You don’t get to vote for the Supreme Court, so maybe you don’t think about it often. It’s not SCOTUS judges playing politics with legislation and giving TV interviews that will he picked apart later; those are politicians. SCOTUS is detached from all of that by design.

SCOTUS is intended as a constitutional body, not a political one. For roughly 243 years it has served that purpose. Appointees may have leaned conservative or liberal, but they were guided by constitutional consideration rather than partisanship.

The Supreme Court is DESIGNED to allow judges to consider constitution over party, because they don’t have to worry about being replaced or re-elected.
With the last two judges appointed to the court, we are sliding away from that precedent at an alarmingly rapid rate.

Gorsuch & Kavanaugh are GOP partisan actors. Their ruling on the election in Wis. is exhibit A. They are judges who make up their minds first & then mold the Constitution to fit. & since they’re meant as a nonpartisan check on the rest of government, this is a huge red flag!

Given the right test case, a partisan Supreme Court can uphold or overturn any law short of constitutional amendments, and they can do it along party lines.

Right now, the Court is more or less 5/4 between originalists/Republican partisans and living constitutionalists (?)

I won’t offer definitions here because this is hard enough to do in a bunch of fragments. But the point is that originalists tend to go conservative and living constitutionalists tend to go liberal. Sometimes they cross that line, when necessary. GOP partisan actors do not.

So, right now we have a court that is OLD. The next 4-8 years are a crucial transition period. We can expect 2 living constitutionalists & 2 originalists to retire in the next 4-8 years, timing likely dependent on who wins this Nov. If Biden wins, expect RBG & Breyer (LC) to go.

If Trump wins, RBG will have to go anyway. She’s holding on by sheer force of will alone at this point. I’m not certain what Breyer’s health looks like and whether he would be able to hang on. So he’s a ??? Alito and Thomas (OG) will most likely allow Trump to replace them.

So the best case scenario as far as the Court goes is Biden wins and replaces two loose constructionists and we stay at a 5-4 stasis. But the WORST CASE SCENARIO is that Trump wins and is able to replace Thomas, Alito, RBG and possibly Breyer with GOP partisan actors.

If Trump is able to replace all 4, he’ll beat the record for post-22nd Amendment SCOTUS appointments. If he replaces 3, he’ll match it. Most presidents get 2 appointees; Trump has the potential for SIX, all of whom will likely serve for at least 20 years.

If this happens, progressivism will stall in its tracks and likely roll backwards until the bulk of the Court starts to age out again. As I said earlier, the Court can basically sustain or overturn any law so long as there is a single willing test case (and there always is).

If we pass M4A? Overturned.
Environmental protections? Overturned.
Gun control? Overturned.
Roe v. Wade? Overturned.
Queer workplace protections? Affirmative Action? Out the window.
The constitution only matters to justices who actually consider it when making their decision.

All this is to say that by allowing Trump to take another 4 years, in whatever form that takes for you (staying home, writing in a candidate, voting third party/downballot only, or voting for Trump), you will not so much “teach the DNC a lesson” as you will cripple the movement.

You have to ask yourself if it is worth it to make the United States a very scary place for women, queer people, and minorities for at least the next 20 years, in addition to giving up on M4A during that time, in order to avoid the moral stain of voting for Biden.

For progressives who fully understand the implications of the next 4 years on the next 20, I hope the answer is no.
This isn’t a case of “the DNC does this EVERY TIME & they’re gonna keep doing it if we let them!”
If we lose SCOTUS, we will have a much worse foe than the DNC.
END

I lied. One more thing: Constitutional law should be required high school coursework.