Preventing child abuse is an important duty, but stories like this, which are based on little more than speculation and fear, can end up causing more harm. THREAD [1/9] #txlege https://twitter.com/KVUE/status/1247735925154643968

The number of hotline calls tells us very little about the prevalence of child abuse. A better measure to inform our response is the number of reports that are ultimately substantiated. [2/9]

This chart from the annual Children’s Bureau report on Child Maltreatment is useful for putting things in proper perspective. Data is from 2018 – the most recent report available. [3/9]

Notice that there were 4.8 million allegations of abuse or neglect involving 7.8 million children. What happened with those allegations? [4/9]

Well, 44% of allegations—a little over 2 million reports—were immediately “screened out” with no response at all from CPS. [5/9]

Of those allegations that were looked into, approximately 3.5 million children received some type of investigation or alternative response. That’s less than half of the total number of children reported to CPS. [6/9]

Now, here’s the kicker - at the conclusion of those investigations, more than 2.8 million children were found to be NONVICTIMS. So, roughly 80% of children investigated by CPS were determined to not have been victims of the maltreatment reported. [7/9]

So, we’re looking at a confirmation rate of only about 20% of all cases reported to CPS, which is right about where the rate for Texas is sitting (22%) according to the report. [8/9]

Point is, the number of calls isn’t a good measure of more or less abuse. Using it to speculate that more kids are in danger is, at best, misleading. At worst, it encourages false reports that hurt innocent families & make it harder for CPS to protect kids in actual danger. [9/9]