Read on Twitter
1. A thread responding to @MichaelPetrilli tweet. Here's the Fauci video from last evening. So how should we think about the timing of schools reopening? https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1247667341724450816?s=20 https://twitter.com/MichaelPetrilli/status/1247875486153191426
2. First, we need data (testing!) and models to inform decisions. The great team at @IHME_UW has the best modeling on when peaks will arrive in each state. They just updated their model a few days ago. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
3. @caitlinnowens at @axios has a great visualization of the peak in each state. A lot of states are projected to reach their peak in April, but a few will still be in their wave in May. https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-states-peak-hospitals-53274e0e-69b8-4dc7-b069-fb27955c559a.html
4. So we could see a relaxing of the social distancing measures beginning in late May/early June. The question becomes: 1 What criteria should trigger the removal of a measure? and 2 What criteria should trigger the reactivation of those measures? That includes school closures
5. Former FDA Commissioners: @ScottGottliebMD and Mark McClellan along with Caitlin Rivers, Lauren Silvis and Crystal Watson outlined their four stages with triggers criteria here: https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/National-Coronavirus-Response-a-Road-Map-to-Recovering-2.pdf @AEI
6. Ezekiel Emanuel also published an his thinking on the stages: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/opinion/coronavirus-economy.html
7. The other model shaping these decisions comes from the Imperial College of London that showed five months of intensive measures can help (that's where we are now). But relaxing them will lead to a rebound/second wave in the fall. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
8. They suggest you need an "adaptive policy" which is across the board measures that are then relaxed. But localized school closures and other measures should be triggered when there's a surge in cases. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
9. The data visualization wizards at the Economist have a good graphic illustrating this: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/20/the-lockdown-goes-viral
10. So what does that mean for edu?
1. Schools likely won't reopen this academic year.
2. I suspect a lot of summer camps are canceled this summer.
3. Schools reopen in the fall. BUT, per the adaptive policy, we should EXPECT some schools to close next year for 2-4 weeks
1. Schools likely won't reopen this academic year.
2. I suspect a lot of summer camps are canceled this summer.
3. Schools reopen in the fall. BUT, per the adaptive policy, we should EXPECT some schools to close next year for 2-4 weeks
11. A lot could change between now and then. The only way triggers can work is if we have widespread testing with fast results. We're still uncovering the mysteries of Covid-19 including why children might be carriers but don't seem as at risk with the most severe symptoms.
12. But there's also local sentiment. Remember, it was teachers who called for on De Blasio to close schools: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-outbreak-nyc-teachers-furious-over-de-blasio-s-policy-n1159491
13. So some schools might decide to close out of an abundance of caution or due to parent/teacher concerns.
14. We weren't prepared for remote learning in March. So how do we use the next couple of months to be better prepared for the fall? And how do we prepare diagnostic tools to gauge the expected "Pandemic Summer Slide," SEL needs, and the interventions to address them?
15. Also - we might want to think about closing schools for *some* children but keeping them open for small groups of other children. Israel just announced they were reopening schools just for special needs children: https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Special-education-students-to-return-to-school-after-Passover-623872
16. Wondering if that could be a path forward for us in navigating the tensions between remote learning and serving students with special needs.
17. More thoughts are in my 3/25 piece at @EducationNext : https://www.educationnext.org/covid-19-closed-schools-when-should-they-reopen-coronavirus/
