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Oil bulls hope Saudi Arabia will save the world. But who's going to save Saudi Arabia's world? <THREAD> #OOTT (1/9)
Saudi, like any big oil exporter, is suffering right now. But the new book from geopolitics expert @peterzeihan called "Disunited Nations" shows Covid-19 is like a fever dream about the bigger challenges overtaking the country. (2/9)
Zeihan argues that as the U.S. disengages from the free-trading, alliance-building order it underwrote after 1945, countries arranged around that order face enormous upheaval. Prime example: Saudi Arabia (3/9)
To date, Saudi Arabia has rested on two pillars: Ever-rising oil demand and ever-present U.S. security. Today's column argues both are now seriously in question: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-08/opec-meeting-oil-savior-saudi-arabia-s-world-is-coming-undone?sref=kOk687Pk via @bopinion (4/9)
It's partly about the money, of course. Even if Aramco pumps 12 million barrels a day, the government's take from the company looks set to drop by $100 billion-plus this year (5/9)
Saudi Arabia has launched reforms, but its task is monumental given dependence on oil and government jobs. And as @jimkrane wrote in "Energy Kingdoms", energy subsidies distort things further. Saudi Arabia's economy is becoming MORE energy intense over time, not less (6/9)
Zeihan expects Saudi Arabian foreign policy to become more aggressive; "the geopolitics of arson" he calls it. We have seen examples of this already under the de facto rule of MBS with both Yemen and Qatar (7/9)
An added twist is MBS's more overt appeal to nationalism. The Aramco IPO was a prime example, but @kdiwaniya argues here that it may portend Saudi citizens being asked to do more and endure more sacrifices: https://agsiw.org/the-big-gamble-of-mohammed-bin-salman-and-saudi-arabia/ via @GulfStatesInst (8/9)
A headstrong ruler lacking institutional checks and fostering nationalism to offset economic hardship isn't a recipe for mellow outcomes. But it fits with Zeihan's fractured world - a problem for Saudi Arabia and an oil market that grew up with globalization (9/9)
