One more thread on the #coronavirus exit strategy. Sorry... but it is difficult, at least for me, to focus on other things when the future is so uncertain. 1/9

As things stand, we are staying inside, protecting the NHS and thereby saving lives. The fewer interactions there are, the more the spread of the virus will slow. There are signs that this is beginning to work. 2/9

Clearly, the number of new cases has to slow to a manageable rate before we move on the next phase. With luck, within a week or two, that will have happened. The virus will *not* have been eradicated, but will have been slowed. 3/9

So... what then? We think about relaxing the lockdown, and about 'returning to normal'. Some are hoping that will happen within a matter of weeks. 4/9

But... if we relax the lockdown, the predicted result is that the spread of virus will, once again, begin to increase. That is after all what happened in early March (and there were fewer 'live' cases then than there likely will be in a few weeks' time). 5/9

The next phase has to involve a combination of a more relaxed lockdown AND a simultaneous and sustained reduction (or maybe levelling off) of the spread of the virus. That will be difficult to achieve. 6/9

From what I've read, it depends on the overall rate of infection (now c 10%); and on a sophisticated approach to testing and tracing; and continuing shielding of the infectious and the most vulnerable. 7/9

Put simply, we won't be able to move to the next phase, until a plausible suppression strategy exists to accompany a (partial, and surely it will only be partial) lifting of lockdown. 8/9

So, strict adherence to the lockdown cannot - by itself - bring about the next phase; though it will flatten the curve, protect the NHS and save lives. Govt action to suppressing the spread of the disease once lockdown is (partially) lifted is also needed. 9/9