Read on Twitter
I love that my guy @BoSnerdley posted this. Hope you and your family are well. A few thoughts...
1) The number of cases are highest where people live on top of one another. NYC is uniquely vulnerable to a bug like this, and it's reflected in the number of cases and fatalities... https://twitter.com/BoSnerdley/status/1247935656384499714
1) The number of cases are highest where people live on top of one another. NYC is uniquely vulnerable to a bug like this, and it's reflected in the number of cases and fatalities... https://twitter.com/BoSnerdley/status/1247935656384499714
...and it's also reflected in cities like New Orleans who have similar limitations on real estate. NOLA is a much smaller geographic area than cities of comparable size.
2) Nobody's studying it right now, but you'll probably see that you can track density of cases by city block.
2) Nobody's studying it right now, but you'll probably see that you can track density of cases by city block.
...Why is this? Because public and low-income housing tends to be very vertical, and share ventilation. Areas that have fewer cases tend to be more spread-out horizontally. That's one of the reasons India are as concerned as they are, and I expect similar things in Mexico...
3) In the United States, @VanJones68 touched on a genuine cultural issue that we face. The African-American community statistically doesn't trust the medical community in the US, and there has been an underreported story that the inner-city community believes this to be a...
...white and Asian disease. The AA community in the US has had an undercurrent of "it's not our problem and we won't get it; it's the white folks' problem." I've heard this from my own patients prior to getting pulled off clinical duties.
4) A word on modeling, and I say this...
4) A word on modeling, and I say this...
...as someone married to a meteorologist, and thus acutely aware of the shortcomings of modeling.
Models show what (in this case) a bug does if no steps are taken to keep it from spreading. Our caseload has undershot the model by as much as 90% BECAUSE WE TOOK STEPS TO STOP IT...
Models show what (in this case) a bug does if no steps are taken to keep it from spreading. Our caseload has undershot the model by as much as 90% BECAUSE WE TOOK STEPS TO STOP IT...
...and the steps are working.
Now, what that unfortunately means is that it's like fighting a fire- we still have to put out the hot spots. While I'm hopeful that we'll be able to loosen the reins a bit here shortly, this is FAR from over.
This is going to mean, most likely...
Now, what that unfortunately means is that it's like fighting a fire- we still have to put out the hot spots. While I'm hopeful that we'll be able to loosen the reins a bit here shortly, this is FAR from over.
This is going to mean, most likely...
...that we maintain social distancing for a while to come, and that we're probably looking at a very slow roll on what gets reopened when. If you want to help this end quicker, wear a cloth mask in public.
Look at China having to re-close movie theaters- they started letting...
Look at China having to re-close movie theaters- they started letting...
...people out to go play, and now they're right back where they were (I don't care what their official numbers are).
5) Finally- on a personal note- as an MD/MBA, I'm ACUTELY aware of how much of a beating people are taking. It may interest you to know that private practices...
5) Finally- on a personal note- as an MD/MBA, I'm ACUTELY aware of how much of a beating people are taking. It may interest you to know that private practices...
...are getting hammered financially as well, because they aren't seeing the routine stuff that keeps the bills paid. The only stuff we get to see is life-threatening stuff, and we're just as anxious to get the doors opened again as any small business in the country.
As such...
As such...
...the measures, as draconian as they are, are working- so long as people play ball. We can't do business if people are too sick to do business.
And all of us are watching closely to see who tries to do a power-grab on this. Anyone who does needs to pay a fearful price.
So...
And all of us are watching closely to see who tries to do a power-grab on this. Anyone who does needs to pay a fearful price.
So...
...y'all, just hang in there- we're closer to the end than the beginning, but the last thing in the world we need is a repeat of the timeline of the Spanish flu of 1918.
Bad spring, light summer, and then the SHIT HITS THE FAN in the fall. That's when the bulk of the...
Bad spring, light summer, and then the SHIT HITS THE FAN in the fall. That's when the bulk of the...
...fatalities happened.
Thanks for reading.
/fin
Thanks for reading.
/fin
