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I love that my guy @BoSnerdley posted this. Hope you and your family are well. A few thoughts...
1) The number of cases are highest where people live on top of one another. NYC is uniquely vulnerable to a bug like this, and it& #39;s reflected in the number of cases and fatalities... https://twitter.com/BoSnerdley/status/1247935656384499714">https://twitter.com/BoSnerdle...
1) The number of cases are highest where people live on top of one another. NYC is uniquely vulnerable to a bug like this, and it& #39;s reflected in the number of cases and fatalities... https://twitter.com/BoSnerdley/status/1247935656384499714">https://twitter.com/BoSnerdle...
...and it& #39;s also reflected in cities like New Orleans who have similar limitations on real estate. NOLA is a much smaller geographic area than cities of comparable size.
2) Nobody& #39;s studying it right now, but you& #39;ll probably see that you can track density of cases by city block.
2) Nobody& #39;s studying it right now, but you& #39;ll probably see that you can track density of cases by city block.
...Why is this? Because public and low-income housing tends to be very vertical, and share ventilation. Areas that have fewer cases tend to be more spread-out horizontally. That& #39;s one of the reasons India are as concerned as they are, and I expect similar things in Mexico...
3) In the United States, @VanJones68 touched on a genuine cultural issue that we face. The African-American community statistically doesn& #39;t trust the medical community in the US, and there has been an underreported story that the inner-city community believes this to be a...
...white and Asian disease. The AA community in the US has had an undercurrent of "it& #39;s not our problem and we won& #39;t get it; it& #39;s the white folks& #39; problem." I& #39;ve heard this from my own patients prior to getting pulled off clinical duties.
4) A word on modeling, and I say this...
4) A word on modeling, and I say this...
...as someone married to a meteorologist, and thus acutely aware of the shortcomings of modeling.
Models show what (in this case) a bug does if no steps are taken to keep it from spreading. Our caseload has undershot the model by as much as 90% BECAUSE WE TOOK STEPS TO STOP IT...
Models show what (in this case) a bug does if no steps are taken to keep it from spreading. Our caseload has undershot the model by as much as 90% BECAUSE WE TOOK STEPS TO STOP IT...
...and the steps are working.
Now, what that unfortunately means is that it& #39;s like fighting a fire- we still have to put out the hot spots. While I& #39;m hopeful that we& #39;ll be able to loosen the reins a bit here shortly, this is FAR from over.
This is going to mean, most likely...
Now, what that unfortunately means is that it& #39;s like fighting a fire- we still have to put out the hot spots. While I& #39;m hopeful that we& #39;ll be able to loosen the reins a bit here shortly, this is FAR from over.
This is going to mean, most likely...
...that we maintain social distancing for a while to come, and that we& #39;re probably looking at a very slow roll on what gets reopened when. If you want to help this end quicker, wear a cloth mask in public.
Look at China having to re-close movie theaters- they started letting...
Look at China having to re-close movie theaters- they started letting...
...people out to go play, and now they& #39;re right back where they were (I don& #39;t care what their official numbers are).
5) Finally- on a personal note- as an MD/MBA, I& #39;m ACUTELY aware of how much of a beating people are taking. It may interest you to know that private practices...
5) Finally- on a personal note- as an MD/MBA, I& #39;m ACUTELY aware of how much of a beating people are taking. It may interest you to know that private practices...
...are getting hammered financially as well, because they aren& #39;t seeing the routine stuff that keeps the bills paid. The only stuff we get to see is life-threatening stuff, and we& #39;re just as anxious to get the doors opened again as any small business in the country.
As such...
As such...
...the measures, as draconian as they are, are working- so long as people play ball. We can& #39;t do business if people are too sick to do business.
And all of us are watching closely to see who tries to do a power-grab on this. Anyone who does needs to pay a fearful price.
So...
And all of us are watching closely to see who tries to do a power-grab on this. Anyone who does needs to pay a fearful price.
So...
...y& #39;all, just hang in there- we& #39;re closer to the end than the beginning, but the last thing in the world we need is a repeat of the timeline of the Spanish flu of 1918.
Bad spring, light summer, and then the SHIT HITS THE FAN in the fall. That& #39;s when the bulk of the...
Bad spring, light summer, and then the SHIT HITS THE FAN in the fall. That& #39;s when the bulk of the...
...fatalities happened.
Thanks for reading.
/fin
Thanks for reading.
/fin
