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I've seen a few people on here (most notably @adannehy) argue that Jimmy Graham was more misused than bad in 2019. Pace and Nagy sure seemed to echo that line of thinking in their press conference, so I dug into his stats a little bit to see what I could find. (thread)
Here's a wide-ranging look at a combination of traditional and advanced stats for Graham, including his rank among all 32 TEs who qualified for the @NextGenStats database in 2019.
Overall, Graham was middle of the road in volume (targets and yards). His catch % was low, but he was still middle of the pack in yards/target (even when weighted for overall team efficiency) because he got targets deeper than most and was good at picking up YAC.
I also looked up Graham's for all these categories in 2018 (also GB) and 2017 (SEA), and 2019 was in line with or slightly better than the other 2 years in most of them. So this is more or less who he is. Basically a middle of the road tight end, at least as a receiver
I wouldn't put too much weight into the separation. I've noticed there seems to be a pattern where players with less target volume get more open, and Graham wasn't super heavily targeted. His separation amounts were more in line with TE average in both 2018 and 2017.
Still, it's nice to know that Graham can still get open, and he doesn't drop the ball when it comes his way (5 total drops between 2018-19, as far back as @pfref database goes for that stat. Puts him at 3.3%, well below NFL average of 5%). You can't say that of 2019 Bears TEs
Graham can't block well, but Bears won't ask him to do much (likely any) in-line work.
One other area Graham really struggled last year was producing explosive plays (I use 20+ yard receptions in keeping with @NFLMatchup). He had only 3 in 2019, which was among the lowest.
One other area Graham really struggled last year was producing explosive plays (I use 20+ yard receptions in keeping with @NFLMatchup). He had only 3 in 2019, which was among the lowest.
The lack of explosive plays was a new thing for Graham; he had around average amounts for a starting TE (7-8) in both 2017 and 2018. Time will tell whether that was how GB used him or him starting to slow down. Maybe just a fluke with a small sample size.
Basically, there's nothing in Graham's production from 2019 to suggest he's any worse than he was in 2017 or 18. You're certainly not getting in-his-prime Graham, but that shouldn't be the expectation (even though his contract might say otherwise).
Graham will turn 34 during the season, so a dropoff might be coming, but if he continues like the last few years he'll be a league-average TE. Which is a seismic step up from what they had at the position in 2019 (remarkably similar to Foles at QB, actually).
It's certainly far from ideal for the Bears to have 2 average TEs paid like top 10 players, but it's better than having Ben Braunecker, JP Holtz, Adam Shaheen, Jesper Horsted, and Eric Saubert combine for 45 targets.
At the same time, the Bears NEED to find a TE in the draft who can replace Graham and Burton for a fraction of the cost. Take a swing on day 3 this year, make it a draft priority in 2021. You can't keep throwing big money at meh vets in FA every year or two.
