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I& #39;ve seen a few people on here (most notably @adannehy) argue that Jimmy Graham was more misused than bad in 2019. Pace and Nagy sure seemed to echo that line of thinking in their press conference, so I dug into his stats a little bit to see what I could find. (thread)
Here& #39;s a wide-ranging look at a combination of traditional and advanced stats for Graham, including his rank among all 32 TEs who qualified for the @NextGenStats database in 2019.
Overall, Graham was middle of the road in volume (targets and yards). His catch % was low, but he was still middle of the pack in yards/target (even when weighted for overall team efficiency) because he got targets deeper than most and was good at picking up YAC.
I also looked up Graham& #39;s for all these categories in 2018 (also GB) and 2017 (SEA), and 2019 was in line with or slightly better than the other 2 years in most of them. So this is more or less who he is. Basically a middle of the road tight end, at least as a receiver
I wouldn& #39;t put too much weight into the separation. I& #39;ve noticed there seems to be a pattern where players with less target volume get more open, and Graham wasn& #39;t super heavily targeted. His separation amounts were more in line with TE average in both 2018 and 2017.
Still, it& #39;s nice to know that Graham can still get open, and he doesn& #39;t drop the ball when it comes his way (5 total drops between 2018-19, as far back as @pfref database goes for that stat. Puts him at 3.3%, well below NFL average of 5%). You can& #39;t say that of 2019 Bears TEs
Graham can& #39;t block well, but Bears won& #39;t ask him to do much (likely any) in-line work.
One other area Graham really struggled last year was producing explosive plays (I use 20+ yard receptions in keeping with @NFLMatchup). He had only 3 in 2019, which was among the lowest.
One other area Graham really struggled last year was producing explosive plays (I use 20+ yard receptions in keeping with @NFLMatchup). He had only 3 in 2019, which was among the lowest.
The lack of explosive plays was a new thing for Graham; he had around average amounts for a starting TE (7-8) in both 2017 and 2018. Time will tell whether that was how GB used him or him starting to slow down. Maybe just a fluke with a small sample size.
Basically, there& #39;s nothing in Graham& #39;s production from 2019 to suggest he& #39;s any worse than he was in 2017 or 18. You& #39;re certainly not getting in-his-prime Graham, but that shouldn& #39;t be the expectation (even though his contract might say otherwise).
Graham will turn 34 during the season, so a dropoff might be coming, but if he continues like the last few years he& #39;ll be a league-average TE. Which is a seismic step up from what they had at the position in 2019 (remarkably similar to Foles at QB, actually).
It& #39;s certainly far from ideal for the Bears to have 2 average TEs paid like top 10 players, but it& #39;s better than having Ben Braunecker, JP Holtz, Adam Shaheen, Jesper Horsted, and Eric Saubert combine for 45 targets.
At the same time, the Bears NEED to find a TE in the draft who can replace Graham and Burton for a fraction of the cost. Take a swing on day 3 this year, make it a draft priority in 2021. You can& #39;t keep throwing big money at meh vets in FA every year or two.
