Read on Twitter
Economic case for population scale testing, tracing and isolation. Rough draft only, but comments very welcome! will write a thread when I have time... https://docs.google.com/document/d/1M_wiuX27ySiaYerw67hitl9Ubd9K9xabiL0Ke5RjQjE/edit?usp=sharing
The draft report linked above makes the economic case for the PTTI strategy clear: whilst it costs only £32.2bn over 2 years, it saves an estimated £48.6bn in costs direct associated with Covid illness (so it is cost saving),
averts an estimated 353,000 deaths (£91,324 per death averted), 706,000 intensive care unit (ICU) cases, 2,118,000 hospitalisations and 45,103,524 Covid-19 cases over 2 years, and results in an estimated £14.9bn in productivity gains for the economy during time not locked-down.
The benefit to cost ratio is 3 to 1 if health gains are monetised. In addition, the boost to national morale and markets of knowing there is a safe and relatively easy way out of the dire Covid situation the country faces, would be unprecedented and makes the PTTI strategy even..
..more attractive as the way forward for the Covid response in the UK now. We need more time to work this up. But we want the government to seriously consider this as an option given time is so short to get it up and running @CMO_England @uksciencechief @MattHancock
@globalhlthtwit @devisridhar @martinmckee @ProfIAbubakar @UCLGlobalHealth @Dr2NisreenAlwan @carolecadwalla @AdamJKucharski @GrahamMedley @neil_ferguson @richardhorton1 @CarinaTKing @WHO @DrTedros @mvankerkhove Please adapt to other countries #COVID19 #exitstrategy #endlockdown
Potentially promising for population scale testing? (this not included in draft case above as only just seen it): https://www.billiontoone.com/covid-19
