Some ways to gauge sentiment in Bitcoin market.
1. Futures basis.
2. Perp swap funding.
3. Options skew.
4. Options order flow.
1/n
Futures basis = futures price - spot price.
Positive basis is contango. Bullish.
Negative basis is backwardation. Bearish.
Current status: contango.
http://skew.com/dashboard/bitcoin-futures
2/n
Perp swap funding.
Positive (Longs pay Shorts) means traders are bidding XBTUSD > index and must pay funding to shorts to disincentivise this & bring XBTUSD back in line with index. Bullish.
Negative (Shorts pay Longs). Bearish.
Current status: Positive
3/n
Options skew: how IV varies across strikes for a given expiry.
Reverse Skew (Volatility Smirk)
IV for options at lower strikes > IV at higher strikes. Bearish.
Forward skew. IV at lower strikes < IV at higher strikes. Bullish.
Current: reverse
http://skew.com/dashboard/bitcoin-options
4/n
Options order flow.
Who is dominating options trading?
Call buyers -> Bullish for price
Put buyers -> Bearish for price
Options sellers -> bearish for volatility
Options buyers -> bullish for volatility
Status:
No clear signal.
http://skew.com/dashboard/bitcoin-options
6/n
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