Rule number one: Scientists and health professionals lead this conversation. Pandemics follow a predictable arc, and epidemiologists are right to protect the vulnerable. Most communities will see cases peak over the next two months. Time to start planning.
When doctors announce they have enough resources to treat the sick, we can consider restarting businesses. Very, very carefully. We’ll need to test 750,000 people a week across the population to be confident.
If your employees can work from home, let them. Social distancing will remain critical until we have a vaccine. Teleconferencing is your ally in controlling health care costs. Besides, schools aren't going to reopen until fall.
For the rest, we can look to Sweden and the Netherlands. Both nations have shut down activities that require physical contact, but they’ve kept open low-contact, low-density activities such as retail. Both governments are betting residents will act responsibly.
Rule number two: Workers come first, consumers second, profits third. No business is successful without skilled and confident workers. Managers must prepare site-specific plans that include social distancing and surface decontamination.
Customers will need constant reassurance that businesses are prioritizing healthy practices. Masks, temperature checks, hand sanitizer and social distancing will instill confidence. Business as usual will not.
People at the highest risk of mortality will have to stay home after the rest of us to return to work, and employers will need to accommodate them. Do the right things, and profits will follow.
Rule number three: Governments are not done spending.
The CARES Act helped Americans cope with the sudden shutdown of the economy. But $2.2 trillion will only keep us afloat through the lockdowns; it is not enough to restart the economy with so many businesses going bankrupt.
No serious economist believes we will have a V-shaped recovery. The economy will continue to shrink through the end of September, and the soonest we will recover fully is 2021, most analysts agree. Remember, it took five years to recover from the 2008 recession.
The federal government will need to pump trillions more into the economy through additional small business loans, major corporate bailouts, increased unemployment benefits, and expanded health coverage. Good thing America needs trillions in infrastructure.
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