Just a note: CoVid is a novel disease.

That means it does not behave quite like anything else in human experience. It is very, very different. Inevitably, this will mean that some things we thought would work don’t, and some things we didn’t think would work do.

I say this because what this means is that it is possible that one of Trump’s wild-ass “I’m a smart man, this is what I do” claims may be right, instead of current projections.

This doesn’t make him “right”—he’s not right because he’s *smart*, because he will never understand, and didn’t guess, the mechanism by which he ended up being right.

It makes him lucky.

You have to compare the dozens of stupid predictions he made that *didn’t* come true, to the one stupid prediction he makes that may come true, in evaluating his leadership.

(I say this because I second-hand listen to a lot of medical podcasts, and there is a theory—AND IT IS JUST A THEORY—that some severe presentations of CoVid are better off not being intubated.

See: https://rebelem.com/rebel-cast-ep79-covid-19-trying-not-to-intubate-early-why-ardsnet-may-be-the-wrong-ventilator-paradigm/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rebel-cast-ep79-covid-19-trying-not-to-intubate-early-why-ardsnet-may-be-the-wrong-ventilator-paradigm )

AT THIS POINT it is still vitally important to expand ventilator capacity, both because even if this theory is correct, it’s still needed for some patients, and also, the theory may not be correct, and we should keep all our options for saving lives on the table.

But IF this theory is correct, and we end up with excess ventilator capacity, DO NOT let this fool claim he knew it. Fuck that shit.

Being right isn’t about being smart. Everyone is wrong sometimes.

Every incompetent person thinks that their one wild-ass prediction based on personal desires that comes true is evidence that they’re a real genius, ignoring all the ones that *didn’t* come true.

This isn’t even being smart; it’s understanding the fundamental operation of science.

When you’re wrong, it’s because you needed to learn something; and when you’re right, you might only have been right for the wrong reason.