Thread by @gooflah, Any government would have struggled to deal with this, it’s a new [...]

Any government would have struggled to deal with this, it’s a new disease, anyone would have struggled. You don’t know what you don’t know right?

Well…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Risk_Register">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nati...

This lists links to the UKs National Risk Register back to 2008 when all we cared about was terrorism and that Shannon Matthews was found hiding under a bed. These risk registers give a nice matrix of threat likelihood against impact.

2008: Pandemic Influenza (which includes emerging infectious diseases in this version)
Not the highest threat due to illegal wars waged by the UK but look at that impact, flu is worse than ISIS

Here is what the report says about Emerging Infectious Diseases, it reads like a script of what has happened in 2020, back in 2008:

Risk matrix 2010 edition: It’s now recognised as Pandemic Human Disease

Risk matrix 2012: Terrorism is in a different matrix, don’t worry it hasn’t gone away.
Middle likelihood and impact for Other Infectious Diseases, apparently the same impact as Severe Space Weather, whatever the fuck that is.

2013 is the same as 2012, we’re still more worried about Severe Space Weather and Heatwaves than SARS or H1N1, although they recognise containment and impact on carers.
(this text is from 2008 but hadn’t changed up to 2013)

Look at those numbers, Coronavirus is Usain Bolt running the 100 metres in 9 seconds and SARS is Paula Radcliffe shitting at the side of the road.

2015 has the same likelihood vs impact for Emerging Infectious Diseases, but Disruptive Industrial Action has had its likelihood downgraded, come on guys, we need to up our game.

It’s worth pointing out that even as far back as 2008 the report has included similar text to the 2015 text here, although the names of the organisations have changed. At least we’ve got someone primed to deal with it.

In 2017 the report gets shiny and we have pictures like this, an updated album cover for Purple Rain after Prince changed his name to symbol:

As they say the likelihood has been upgraded but the impact stays the same, Emerging Infectious Diseases is the yellow triangle. Apparently there is a 2 likelihood of Heartbeat returning which will please Nick Berry.

This report merges together Flu and Emerging Infectious Disease response more than previous reports, but look what they say about international collaboration and PPE

As we know WHO guidelines aren’t being followed, or maybe they are but they phoned up Roger Daltrey by mistake. We also know they didn’t participate in an EU ventilator scheme, probably because EU ventilators don’t work on people who voted Brexit.

We’ve known about the risk since 2008 and it was upgraded in 2017, but what about how to deal with an unknown disease? Let’s ignore that COVID-19 hit other countries first, what would they know they’re foreigners, we’ve got blitz spirit.

Have a look at this published in September 2019: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-infectious-diseases-strategy">https://www.gov.uk/governmen...

PHE infectious diseases strategy

The Public Health England strategy outlines our work to combat infectious diseases and sets out the strategic priorities for the 5-year period 2020 to 2025.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-infectious-diseases-strategy

Public Health England have an infectious diseases department (NIS National Infection Service) that deal with things like TB, an incredibly infectious disease.

These people are the type of scientists who only talk about phylogenetic trees, co-morbidities and multidrug resistance. They have field agents that test a suspected case, find out about any contact and test those people too.

It’s like in a disaster film where the army have tried bullets and grenades and nukes on a virus and then Matthew Broderick turns up looking nerdy and saves the day. That’s these guys but without the vehicular manslaughter.

This is from the PHE strategy. The experts know we need to test, it is a core function of their strategy.

They even recognise the National Risk of Flu and Emerging Infectious Diseases, they know they are on the hook to deal with this and they have a plan:

The only thing that is worth mentioning is that they say

“The staff and infrastructure at our specialist and reference laboratories have the capability to respond to a rapid upsurge in activity”

PHE have had their funding cut like every other part of the health service and they are stretched, they’ve either not been listened to or haven’t had the capacity to respond.

So we actually did know, we knew pretty much blow for blow what would happen and what the impact would be, what was necessary to deal with it and what provisions we needed to do that. Anything else is waffle #ClapForBoris

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