Read on Twitter
Where& #39;s Russia?
While
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flag of China" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of China">-https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flag of United States" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of United States"> are competing for "global leadership" during the #COVID19 crisis, Russia is sitting this one out.
Why is that? International Relations scholarship can offer some insights
[THREAD]
While
Why is that? International Relations scholarship can offer some insights
[THREAD]
To be clear, Russia hasn& #39;t been totally out of the international efforts to respond to #COVID19.
After all, they sent a well publicized (in Russia) shipment of supplies to the US... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-coronavirus-aid-us-putin/2020/04/01/39d52cb2-7411-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eur...
After all, they sent a well publicized (in Russia) shipment of supplies to the US... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-coronavirus-aid-us-putin/2020/04/01/39d52cb2-7411-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eur...
...and Russian internet trolls have been busy. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/02/yes-russia-spreads-coronavirus-lies-they-were-made-america/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2...
But Russia is mostly hunkering down, ... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/coronavirus-russia-closes-border-with-china-to-prevent-spread.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/3...
... not saying too much about the presence of #COVID19 in the country (though "pneumonia" seems to be on the uptick), ... https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1241703091596132352">https://twitter.com/ProfPaulP...
... and, as illustrated perhaps most bluntly by its actions towards SA and OPEC, being very uncooperative. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/why-the-opec-russia-blowup-sparked-all-out-oil-price-war/2020/04/03/9c275a46-75da-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html">https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/...
One could label this behavior "international distancing", as @matboulegue describes in his @ChathamHouse commentary https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/covid-19-world-russia-sticks-international-distancing">https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/co...
Such "International Distancing" seems to run against what Julia Gurganus & @eugene_rumer of @CarnegieEndow labeled last year "Russia& #39;s Global Ambition" https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/02/20/russia-s-global-ambitions-in-perspective-pub-78067">https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/02/2...
What& #39;s going on?
Conceptually, International Relations scholars have a word to describe this behavior: "hiding"
Conceptually, International Relations scholars have a word to describe this behavior: "hiding"
Paul Schroeder introduced the concept of "hiding" in @Journal_IS
Source: https://muse.jhu.edu/article/447319 ">https://muse.jhu.edu/article/4...
Source: https://muse.jhu.edu/article/447319 ">https://muse.jhu.edu/article/4...
The idea is that the state, rather than seeking to work with others to "balance" a threat or even take unilateral measures to counter the threat internationally, either ignores the threat or isolates and hopes for the best.
This is a variant on what Christensen and Snyder in @IntOrgJournal called "buck passing" https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/chain-gangs-and-passed-bucks-predicting-alliance-patterns-in-multipolarity/F14C4DDDF83A484B673A55E1D925CDAA">https://www.cambridge.org/core/jour...
Or what Schweller in @Journal_IS labeled "underbalancing" https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/0162288042879913?journalCode=isec">https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/1...
In a response to Schroeder, Miriam Elman and Colin Elman point out that while hiding could be explained by domestic politics, it& #39;s not essential
Source: https://muse.jhu.edu/article/447399/summary">https://muse.jhu.edu/article/4...
Source: https://muse.jhu.edu/article/447399/summary">https://muse.jhu.edu/article/4...
But much work attributes the cause of hiding to domestic political factors. Here is what Schweller writes (from the above mentioned @Journal_IS piece):
This appears to be the case with Russia& #39;s response to #COVID19, as @AlexWardVox nicely describes in this @voxdotcom piece https://www.vox.com/2020/4/6/21200167/coronavirus-russia-vladimir-putin-moscow-cases">https://www.vox.com/2020/4/6/...
Quoting @apolyakova of @CEPA: “this crisis comes at the worst moment for him."
Specifically, Putin was hoping to hold a vote that would reform the constitution and give him more power domestically https://www.vox.com/2020/1/15/21066985/russian-government-resigned-putin-constitutional-reforms">https://www.vox.com/2020/1/15...
Specifically, Putin was hoping to hold a vote that would reform the constitution and give him more power domestically https://www.vox.com/2020/1/15/21066985/russian-government-resigned-putin-constitutional-reforms">https://www.vox.com/2020/1/15...
In a recent address to the nation, Putin himself admitted that holding the vote in the midst of concerns over a pandemic was probably not a good idea (take note Wisconsin):
Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63061">https://en.kremlin.ru/events/pr...
Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63061">https://en.kremlin.ru/events/pr...
So it seems that the domestic strategy is: wait for this to blow over, not make people too concerned about it in the meantime, and then hold the vote.
Will it work?https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤷♂️" title="Man shrugging" aria-label="Emoji: Man shrugging">
Will it work?
There is another angle, still related to domestic politics. @DmitriTrenin points out that the #COVID19 turmoil in Europe and USA presents an opportunity for Putin to say, "see, what the WEST does is flawed. We have it better here!"
Source: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/81335">https://carnegie.ru/commentar...
Source: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/81335">https://carnegie.ru/commentar...
In sum, Russia is exhibiting classic "hiding" behavior in the face of a global threat: wall itself off, hope for the best, and possibly even watch others weaken themselves trying to stop the threat.
[END]
[END]
