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Where's Russia?
While
-
are competing for "global leadership" during the #COVID19 crisis, Russia is sitting this one out.
Why is that? International Relations scholarship can offer some insights
[THREAD]
While
- are competing for "global leadership" during the #COVID19 crisis, Russia is sitting this one out.Why is that? International Relations scholarship can offer some insights
[THREAD]
To be clear, Russia hasn't been totally out of the international efforts to respond to #COVID19.
After all, they sent a well publicized (in Russia) shipment of supplies to the US... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-coronavirus-aid-us-putin/2020/04/01/39d52cb2-7411-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html
After all, they sent a well publicized (in Russia) shipment of supplies to the US... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-coronavirus-aid-us-putin/2020/04/01/39d52cb2-7411-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html
...and Russian internet trolls have been busy. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/02/yes-russia-spreads-coronavirus-lies-they-were-made-america/
But Russia is mostly hunkering down, ... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/coronavirus-russia-closes-border-with-china-to-prevent-spread.html
... not saying too much about the presence of #COVID19 in the country (though "pneumonia" seems to be on the uptick), ... https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1241703091596132352
... and, as illustrated perhaps most bluntly by its actions towards SA and OPEC, being very uncooperative. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/why-the-opec-russia-blowup-sparked-all-out-oil-price-war/2020/04/03/9c275a46-75da-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html
One could label this behavior "international distancing", as @matboulegue describes in his @ChathamHouse commentary https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/covid-19-world-russia-sticks-international-distancing
Such "International Distancing" seems to run against what Julia Gurganus & @eugene_rumer of @CarnegieEndow labeled last year "Russia's Global Ambition" https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/02/20/russia-s-global-ambitions-in-perspective-pub-78067
What's going on?
Conceptually, International Relations scholars have a word to describe this behavior: "hiding"
Conceptually, International Relations scholars have a word to describe this behavior: "hiding"
Paul Schroeder introduced the concept of "hiding" in @Journal_IS
Source: https://muse.jhu.edu/article/447319
Source: https://muse.jhu.edu/article/447319
The idea is that the state, rather than seeking to work with others to "balance" a threat or even take unilateral measures to counter the threat internationally, either ignores the threat or isolates and hopes for the best.
This is a variant on what Christensen and Snyder in @IntOrgJournal called "buck passing" https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/chain-gangs-and-passed-bucks-predicting-alliance-patterns-in-multipolarity/F14C4DDDF83A484B673A55E1D925CDAA
Or what Schweller in @Journal_IS labeled "underbalancing" https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/0162288042879913?journalCode=isec
In a response to Schroeder, Miriam Elman and Colin Elman point out that while hiding could be explained by domestic politics, it's not essential
Source: https://muse.jhu.edu/article/447399/summary
Source: https://muse.jhu.edu/article/447399/summary
But much work attributes the cause of hiding to domestic political factors. Here is what Schweller writes (from the above mentioned @Journal_IS piece):
This appears to be the case with Russia's response to #COVID19, as @AlexWardVox nicely describes in this @voxdotcom piece https://www.vox.com/2020/4/6/21200167/coronavirus-russia-vladimir-putin-moscow-cases
Quoting @apolyakova of @CEPA: “this crisis comes at the worst moment for him."
Specifically, Putin was hoping to hold a vote that would reform the constitution and give him more power domestically https://www.vox.com/2020/1/15/21066985/russian-government-resigned-putin-constitutional-reforms
Specifically, Putin was hoping to hold a vote that would reform the constitution and give him more power domestically https://www.vox.com/2020/1/15/21066985/russian-government-resigned-putin-constitutional-reforms
In a recent address to the nation, Putin himself admitted that holding the vote in the midst of concerns over a pandemic was probably not a good idea (take note Wisconsin):
Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63061
Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63061
So it seems that the domestic strategy is: wait for this to blow over, not make people too concerned about it in the meantime, and then hold the vote.
Will it work?
Will it work?
There is another angle, still related to domestic politics. @DmitriTrenin points out that the #COVID19 turmoil in Europe and USA presents an opportunity for Putin to say, "see, what the WEST does is flawed. We have it better here!"
Source: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/81335
Source: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/81335
In sum, Russia is exhibiting classic "hiding" behavior in the face of a global threat: wall itself off, hope for the best, and possibly even watch others weaken themselves trying to stop the threat.
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