Optimism contingent on phased exit from lockdown reasonably soon . Depth of peak-to-trough output fall is largely baked in. But the *permanent* damage is likely to be a strongly non-linear function of length of shutdown (6 months *much* more than twice as bad as 3 months) (7/8)

I’m aware I’m on the optimistic end of the spectrum here. See https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/04/whack-mole-long-run-virus.html for an even more pessimistic take. Let’s hope I’m right. (8/8) ENDS