Here's a short thread on our Getting Back to Work report. It's clear that this recession will lead to a rise in unemployment steeper than any in living memory with UC claims at least double the 2008/9 peak. Need to act now to support the recovery https://www.employment-studies.co.uk/resource/getting-back-work-0 1/

In all recessions u/e rises faster than it falls, as they're driven by a big increase in exits from work and slower increases in re-entering. In last three recessions it took at least seven years for unemployment to get back to where it was. We'll be in this for the long haul 2/

Young people will be particularly affected, as they're most likely to be moving jobs, and more likely to lose out to people with better experience and skills. In last downturn, unemployment rate grew 4x faster for youth than older. 3/

And long-term unemployment was even worse, reaching near half a million for young people. This has profoundly negative scarring impacts - on employment, earnings, health, wellbeing. But these aren't inevitable - getting back into work quickly reduces these impacts. 4/

There'll be other impacts too - on specific sectors (e.g. retail - see @resfoundation report today!), likely on women, and likely on areas already worse off. In last recession, unemp grew more in areas where it was highest already 5/

But lasting damage is not inevitable. History shows that if we intervene effectively we can reduce the damage. There's a wealth of evidence from UK and overseas showing that active labour market policies, skills and training support all make a difference. We're calling for: 6/

1. Rapid and short-term expansion in jobs support for unemployed, mobilising recruitment and employment services.
For long-term unemployed, we need a new Back to Work Service: specialist support, partnership working and a targeted Back to Work wage subsidy. 7/

2. Refocus skills and training support. Expand pre-employment, job-focused training; increase investment in advice and guidance; co-design and co-invest with employers/ social partners; target support; and encourage adoption of digital learning and of ‘Training Agency’ models 8/

3. Transform support for youth. Test a new integrated Youth Employment and Skills Service with local govt; in shorter term introduce an education, employment and training guarantee; consider case for maintenance support for low earners; improve access to apprenticeships. 9/

4. An orderly withdrawal from the Job Retention Scheme. Need to maximise job retention but minimise risks of distorting recovery. Extend it for four months, close to new entrants, enable short-time working and phase out the subsidy. If lockdown continues, extend it again. 10/

5. Local Back to Work Partnerships to co-ordinate and implement the response, devolving where possible.
A Back to Work Charter with employers - promoting jobs and good employment.
And a Cobra for Jobs to take this forward now, working with ptnrs. Central govt can't do it all 11/

This needs to be co-ordinated with the bigger fiscal/ monetary response. If the crisis impacts are worse than we're expecting then we will need a bigger boat. e.g. cutting labour costs with NICs reductions, more ££ in social security, targeted job creation/ transitional jobs 12/

These proposals will help ensure we can keep people attached to work, help them find better work, and minimise the ‘scars’ from out of work. With a cost of around £4.7 billion we think it'd more than pay for itself And the costs of inaction would be far higher. END