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How should we think about the post-crisis future of the UK labour market, is the question Hannah Slaughter and I set out to address. Our answer: by focusing on where crisis created pressure for change reinforces pre-crisis patterns. Some takeaways: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/crystal-balls-vs-rear-view-mirrors/
The retail sector is 2 decades into a managed relative decline, but this temporary shutdown will have permanent effects: decline will be a lot less manageable. High streets need time to shift from retail towards work/leisure but this crisis means time may be in short supply
The current hard stop on economic migration is biting on agriculture right now - but it's a sign of things to come as the crisis reinforces the shift towards much lower levels of lower paid migration. Crisis + Brexit + policy = change is coming.
Ignore "end of the workplace" predictions made by those currently working from home. Lots of lower paid jobs can't be done from home - and while IT makes it easier to work from home economic (agglomeration) and biological (we're social animals) factors push the other way
Lower earner won't be working from home but they will be seeing the biggest pay rises after this crisis. The very clear reality that they have born the burden of the economic hit and health risks of this crisis will only reinforce the political consensus for a higher minimum wage
The crisis risks reinforcing living standards challenges of younger generations. We are rightly saving (disproportionately older) lives at the price of reducing (disproportionately younger) people’s living standards - you do not want to be leaving education during this crisis
Some trends may go into reverse: the self-employment surge stands out. The perceived riskiness of self-employment has gone up while the tax advantages of being self-employed look set to go down. This tax gap has driven our surge - which is why it's been so UK specific
Our world has changed more in recent weeks than we thought was remotely possible. But our case is that if you want to know where post-crisis Britain is heading keep an eye not just on the crystal ball but the rear-view mirror, too https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/crystal-balls-vs-rear-view-mirrors/
Here's Hannah's version: for all of you that prefer our talking to our typing
